7/29/25 - $nxt - Still long and strong

7/29/25 :: VROCKSTAR ::
Still long and strong

- have written a lot about this name since last yr, so won't bore you with more details
- but still MSD++ FCF yields
- mkt still wants to ignore solar
- any credit-related phase-out is acutally likely to pull fwd demand/ beats (that backlog)
- mkt already seems to be pretty conservative on next year, as is
- and w/ software and electrical systems (cross sell) in the mix... i'd guess all else equal, we still report a great quarter
- what's interesting to note is names that have rallied into their prints (electrical/ infra types) have beat... think , $cls... stuff like this. I get it, diff zip code... but still, these are well-bid "havens" b/c the mkt likes the backlog in trump economy as "money good and dip-buyable... so just buy moar now"

let's see what dan shug and squad offer. i'm buying any dips sub $60... but all else equal, expect upside

V

7 days ago

Trade active

Finally a chance to listen to the call.

1/ besides BTC () where i have deep domain knowledge, there's no doubt in my portfolio that should remain the largest LT position

2/ management are literally all Neo (from the matrix). they handle the tough questions with an elegance and confidence that only comes from a. experience, b. dominance and c. the V-factor... "care". it's clear everyone at NXT "cares". this is a really unique culture in an industry that's still not well understood.

3/ the M&A tuck ins are just awesome. this is a VC team you're buying here with that domain expertise. robotics, AI. they're listening to customers. they're charging for it and their customers are getting the benefit of improved yields. there is literally no second best in the solar industry to NXT.

4/ nobody asked about buybacks. of course. analysts are monkeys. they care about trump's last meal and the consequence for their industry based on the speed of stool and hour of day. remember... nxt is/was restricted b/c of it's unique spin off structure to buy shares until 2H. meanwhile (refer to point 3 above), mgmt have been adding extreme value by acquring ROE-positive stakes. but don't think this fiat won't get put to work, soon

5/ arguably the king kong KPI... backlog is increasing. mgmt are conservative. that billy willy manilly manu quarter (revenue) is a matter of timing. timing is lumpy. analysts keep asking. again. ape thinking. but printing a billy on the top line will draw attention. backlog is increasing folks. solar is going to eat everything. it's a 40 year success story, but now the S curve inflection is happening.

... so 6% fcf yields, but where on discounted 2030 #s, i'd guess that's closer to 10% b/c of growth and where the mkt realizes this is "inevitable" (solar and then trackers gaining share within the industry!) means you're pushing $1 bn in FCF in 2030 and mkt is possibly saying utility+ stability, style LT rate... 3-4%.. so ignoring growth, that's 1/.035 = $28 bn. idk what your cost of capital is... mkt says "that's silly willy V"... but at 8 bn EV today, that's nearly 30% ARR.. again you gotta believe in that green machine kool aid (it's not hard, just look at the inputs). again. mkt will over price this.

i'll do the math for you (in premium-mode).

$300 stock in 2030 and market will realize that in 2027/28 and we'll be in triple digits by then. $100? $200?

does it matter? stonk is $60 today.

buy dips. don't think too hard.

enjoy. a 10% dip on a day like today... is a load.
any lower. load
much lower. load tf up.
higher. buy
much higher. buy.

up, up and to the Sun. let the moonbois aim low and miss the bowl.

V

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