Multi-year bear market end or not??
Prologue:
This pair has been in a multi-year bear market and all that could change soon.
This year alone, the price hit a multi-year low of 0.80189. The price has recovered to a year high of 0.90110. However, since July, the price slid into a zone between support and resistance that have kept the price ranging for the past few months. It's important to note that the pair aggressively rejected the March support at the 0.382 fibonacci retracement level of the previous multi-year bull run from January 2009. This support zone has held the price above the 0.382 Zone for the past 5 years as the pair corrects.
The price can continue lower to test this zone again. However, I'm not motivated by a further downside as I will explain in this idea.
This pair has been in a multi-year bear market and all that could change soon.
This year alone, the price hit a multi-year low of 0.80189. The price has recovered to a year high of 0.90110. However, since July, the price slid into a zone between support and resistance that have kept the price ranging for the past few months. It's important to note that the pair aggressively rejected the March support at the 0.382 fibonacci retracement level of the previous multi-year bull run from January 2009. This support zone has held the price above the 0.382 Zone for the past 5 years as the pair corrects.
The price can continue lower to test this zone again. However, I'm not motivated by a further downside as I will explain in this idea.
- Price Action this year.
Price gained 12.37% from the March 16th Low till July. Currently, the price is still ranging and has already rejected the 0.382 fibonacci retracement level twice. The pair has formed a higher low whenever the price tested the level pushing the pair into a pennant pattern against multi-year trendline. It's still possible for the price to reject the major trend line and create another swing downward.
In the past few weeks, price has broken above a strong resistance which it's currently testing. I expect a bullish push in the medium term but the pennant holds it against a long term bullish impulse. - The Oil Demand Wild Card
So, why I'm I bullish on the long term? Simple, heading to 2050, many countries around the world will have achieved their net-zero emissions target. This time it's different as countries in the G20 are pushing for a green energy development as a strategy to stimulate the countries after the 2020 recessions. In addition to this, the corporate world is also looking to reduce emissions from supply chains. Support from many people around the world will push the demand for oil down. - The OPEC Wildcard
With falling oil demand, the OPEC members will certainly manipulate supply of the blackgold in order to stabilise prices as their economies are still highly dependent on oil. This is the only thing that might stop the CAD from weakness. - My Sentiment
Personally, I feel that the oil demand narrative will take hold and that the pair may exit the multi-year bear market as the CAD has a high correlation to oil prices. However the OPEC manipulation of oil supply might keep the price stabilised. Peak oil is coming sooner and green energy will be cheaper than the fossil fuel in supply chains.
In the meantime, I expect price to keep ranging as demand of oil will be low with new lockdowns in Europe.
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