NZDCAD (trendline hit, Possible trend reversal)
Updated
Price hit .92628 which happens to be -
1) .68% FIB level from 2018 high to low,
2) Resistance level
3) Trendline.
2 scenarios can play out, the price moves higher than .92628, break of channel, 300+ pips OR drop back into the channel 300+ pips
The Trigger is on Dec 19th, Q4 NZD GDP numbers come out, prev NZD GDP was a huge surprise - Previous - 2.6%, Actual 2.8, forecast was for 2.5. Recall Australian GDP was a huge disappointment on DEC 4th with a print reading of .3 versus .6 expected.
On the Canadian side
- the unemployment dropped to 5.8 to 5.6 and 94k jobs created
- OIL prices, which looks like its stabilizing, if Oil moves higher, more confirmation of downward move.
- Canadian WTI-WSC spread rapidly decreasing from a high of 55 to 14.75, avg for the year is 35. (alberta cut production)
NZ-CA 10 year spread bottomed on 4th OCT - at .03 and moved higher since then to 40, still around the average.
To summarize -
IF NZD GDP is a big miss, heavy short, top is in place, downtrend begins.
IF NZD GDP takes a big leap, then look for breakout
IF NZD GDP is normal then as is follow PA.
1) .68% FIB level from 2018 high to low,
2) Resistance level
3) Trendline.
2 scenarios can play out, the price moves higher than .92628, break of channel, 300+ pips OR drop back into the channel 300+ pips
The Trigger is on Dec 19th, Q4 NZD GDP numbers come out, prev NZD GDP was a huge surprise - Previous - 2.6%, Actual 2.8, forecast was for 2.5. Recall Australian GDP was a huge disappointment on DEC 4th with a print reading of .3 versus .6 expected.
On the Canadian side
- the unemployment dropped to 5.8 to 5.6 and 94k jobs created
- OIL prices, which looks like its stabilizing, if Oil moves higher, more confirmation of downward move.
- Canadian WTI-WSC spread rapidly decreasing from a high of 55 to 14.75, avg for the year is 35. (alberta cut production)
NZ-CA 10 year spread bottomed on 4th OCT - at .03 and moved higher since then to 40, still around the average.
To summarize -
IF NZD GDP is a big miss, heavy short, top is in place, downtrend begins.
IF NZD GDP takes a big leap, then look for breakout
IF NZD GDP is normal then as is follow PA.
Note
What analysts are saying about NZD, positive and negative poundsterlinglive.com/nzd/10513-pound-to-new-zealand-dollar-rate-to-rise-7-in-2019-says-major-bank
tempusfx.com/news-analytics/in-the-news/1034-tempus-named-to-bloomberg-q2-2018-top-currency-forecaster-rankings
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.