NZDCAD Is likely to slide toward 0.818 by the end of Jun 2023

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NZDCAD Is likely to slide toward 0.818 by the end of Jun 2023
NZDCAD has been slightly biased downward since Jul 2016 when it peaked at 0.992. The recent gains from the low of 0.763 has not structurally changed the downward channel. There are signs of upside exhaustion which suggests that the rising trend [Bottom=0.763, Top=0.877] is about to reverse course. Also, the area between 0.873 and 0.881 would be considered a big hurdle for the pair to continue higher. The gap between current rate and 200-day moving average is about 7% which implies that the ongoing rally may cool off in the near future.
While the outlook for March and Jun 2023 remains weighted downward toward 0.827 and 0.818 as a base case scenario, the possible upside risk toward 0.904 cannot be ignored.

Upside risk
Overall trend suggests that the area between 0.873 and 0.881 is likely to counter the ongoing bullish sentiment. However, if the pair establishes itself above 0.873 it would signal the potential upside risk.


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