Short

NZD/CHF Bearish Trend Prediction after BOS, now retracing to Fib

My analysis of the NZD/CHF pair presents a clear view of the current market conditions, focusing on key technical levels and potential price movements. Let’s break down these points and add clarity to this forecast:

**Trendline Support Breakdown**: The 4H timeframe has shown that NZD/CHF has broken below a bullish trendline support, which typically indicates a shift in market sentiment, turning that support into a new resistance.
**Previous Resistance Levels**: The pair has recently recovered from a significant decline after breaking below another support level that has now become resistance on the daily timeframe. This context is critical as it suggests that sellers may still be in control, having established a pattern of resistance at higher prices.
**Fibonacci Levels**: I'm anticipating a drop towards the 0.68 Fibonacci retracement zone. This zone will likely act as an area of interest for buyers, given its historical significance. The expectation for buyers to strengthen around this fib level could indicate a potential reversal or at least a temporary bounce in prices.
**Retest of Previous Support**: After observing a bullish reaction near the Fibonacci level, a retest of the former support (now resistance) is a common market behavior. If the market successfully retests this level and shows signs of weakness (like rejection candlesticks or bearish divergence), it may confirm the bearish bias going forward.
**Future Price Movement**: My prediction of a decline toward the 0.51183 level indicates a target that reflects a bearish outlook after the temporary bullish bounce off the Fibonacci zone. If this level holds, we could see a rebound, but if it fails, further downside could be expected.

### Summary of this Projection:
- **Short-term View**: Expect further downside towards the 0.68 Fibonacci zone, where buyers may emerge.
- **Medium-term View**: Post-reaction to the Fibonacci level, a bearish retest of the previous resistance could lead to an extended move down towards the 0.51183 level.

### Recommendations:

- **Monitor Price Action**: Pay attention to how the price behaves around the 0.68 Fibonacci zone. Look for confirmation signals like volume spikes or candlestick patterns to assess the strength of buyers.
- **Consider Stop Losses**: If entering trades in anticipation of a bounce or further decline, consider proper risk management strategies, including appropriate stop-loss placements based on recent volatility and support/resistance zones.

This structured approach can help clarify your trading strategy in navigating the NZD/CHF pair based on technical analysis.

thobanizuma

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