Fundamentals Looking Long | $NZD $USD $EUR $JPY #forex
Friends,
TRADE PROFILE:
Only three days ago, I took the opportunity of a long entry based on a daily chart which confirmed support near the 87.350 level. A layered analysis comprising my prop predictive analysis and forecasting favored a bull directional bias with a series of bullish targets of moderate-probability quality.
Despite being a technical analyst, I like to make sure that the "real world" foundation upon which I build my analyses remains solid and reliable for the future before using turning to abstract methodologies that define my predictive analysis and forecasting system - much like a painter has to ensure the quality of the canvas before turning to its interpretive sense of the landscape.
For this exercise, I like to turn to what central banks are currently thinking or are likely to do in the weeks or months ahead. My sources are simply central bank news outlet, easily reference my mere Google queries. So, let's see what the fundamental data reveals of each of these currencies, before we turn to the technical analysis that led me to take a long position and caused me to pin overhead resistance and forecast levels.
In essence, I am walking you, TradingView trader, through the step-wise analysis in which I engage. In real time terms, it might take me about 20 minutes to establish a bias through fundamentals and technical analysis, then a bout 2-3 minutes to check the charts once or twice a day.
Let's delve into the fundamental then technical analyses.
FUNDAMENTAL DATA AND ITS EFFECT ON PRICE IN THE CHART:
At best, for the NZDJPY trade to move in our forecast direction, significant fundamental data would need to mobilize each currencies of the chart, such that NZD moves up through propelling fundamental forces of a bullish nature, while JPY moves through opposite fundamental forces of a bearish nature. At worse, each currencies would bathe in a neutral fundamental environment, while NZD would confer a bullish move, or inversely, JPY would react to a bearish move, each resulting in a net bullish move.
So, let's look at the fundamental news affecting each of these majors.
NZD FUNDAMENTAL DATA:
Regarding the NZD fundamental outlook, this commodity-based economy has reacted to both a significant decline in dairy pricing, yet another incremental rise in its RBNZ rate hike on April 24th, 2014. This would represent a second rate hike for the year, while central bank commentaries have hinted at a "85% chance of another rate hike in both June and July.
WHAT NZD SHOWS IN THE CHART:
While the market for milk should pressure NZD downwards, central banks have continued to pull on the rate hiking level, this forcing NZD upwards, causing a net bullish force behind the WEEKLY green candle - See how the green candle also retraced to regain the loss incurred by its preceding three bearish candles, and how it is currently preparing to end this week right at the level of the forth prior candle's close.
JPY FUNDAMENTAL DATA:
ECB Kuroda's statement could not be any more explicit:
""The bank will continue with quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2%"
Indeed, Japan is on track toward 2% inflation with a March 2014 inflation rate of 1.61% - a target that is believe to be reached in 2015 or 2016.
Here, the fundamental data supports a deliberate bearish pressure on the Yen.
... (cont'd in the commentary body - This is a live input, so give it time) ...
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
PS: ALL of my predictive analyses (basic and prop patterns, occult geometries, directional interpretation and reversal point determination) and forecasting methodology uses TradingView's panoply of charting tools. The charts I post are the product of use of TradingView's broad spectrum of technical tools and fundamental reference, which remains attainable to all prospective minds. That means you.
- David Alcindor
TRADE PROFILE:
Only three days ago, I took the opportunity of a long entry based on a daily chart which confirmed support near the 87.350 level. A layered analysis comprising my prop predictive analysis and forecasting favored a bull directional bias with a series of bullish targets of moderate-probability quality.
Despite being a technical analyst, I like to make sure that the "real world" foundation upon which I build my analyses remains solid and reliable for the future before using turning to abstract methodologies that define my predictive analysis and forecasting system - much like a painter has to ensure the quality of the canvas before turning to its interpretive sense of the landscape.
For this exercise, I like to turn to what central banks are currently thinking or are likely to do in the weeks or months ahead. My sources are simply central bank news outlet, easily reference my mere Google queries. So, let's see what the fundamental data reveals of each of these currencies, before we turn to the technical analysis that led me to take a long position and caused me to pin overhead resistance and forecast levels.
In essence, I am walking you, TradingView trader, through the step-wise analysis in which I engage. In real time terms, it might take me about 20 minutes to establish a bias through fundamentals and technical analysis, then a bout 2-3 minutes to check the charts once or twice a day.
Let's delve into the fundamental then technical analyses.
FUNDAMENTAL DATA AND ITS EFFECT ON PRICE IN THE CHART:
At best, for the NZDJPY trade to move in our forecast direction, significant fundamental data would need to mobilize each currencies of the chart, such that NZD moves up through propelling fundamental forces of a bullish nature, while JPY moves through opposite fundamental forces of a bearish nature. At worse, each currencies would bathe in a neutral fundamental environment, while NZD would confer a bullish move, or inversely, JPY would react to a bearish move, each resulting in a net bullish move.
So, let's look at the fundamental news affecting each of these majors.
NZD FUNDAMENTAL DATA:
Regarding the NZD fundamental outlook, this commodity-based economy has reacted to both a significant decline in dairy pricing, yet another incremental rise in its RBNZ rate hike on April 24th, 2014. This would represent a second rate hike for the year, while central bank commentaries have hinted at a "85% chance of another rate hike in both June and July.
WHAT NZD SHOWS IN THE CHART:
While the market for milk should pressure NZD downwards, central banks have continued to pull on the rate hiking level, this forcing NZD upwards, causing a net bullish force behind the WEEKLY green candle - See how the green candle also retraced to regain the loss incurred by its preceding three bearish candles, and how it is currently preparing to end this week right at the level of the forth prior candle's close.
JPY FUNDAMENTAL DATA:
ECB Kuroda's statement could not be any more explicit:
""The bank will continue with quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2%"
Indeed, Japan is on track toward 2% inflation with a March 2014 inflation rate of 1.61% - a target that is believe to be reached in 2015 or 2016.
Here, the fundamental data supports a deliberate bearish pressure on the Yen.
... (cont'd in the commentary body - This is a live input, so give it time) ...
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
PS: ALL of my predictive analyses (basic and prop patterns, occult geometries, directional interpretation and reversal point determination) and forecasting methodology uses TradingView's panoply of charting tools. The charts I post are the product of use of TradingView's broad spectrum of technical tools and fundamental reference, which remains attainable to all prospective minds. That means you.
- David Alcindor
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