The main reasons this move more likely will happen are the followings:
-If we look the CFTC, non commercials are shorting JPY aggressively with 117,420 short positions open. 23,135 of those positions were open last week. Only 36,760 positions are long. This means that JPY is getting weaker because non commercials are shorting more than longing.
-If we look the CFTC ,non commercials the past few weeks have been adding more positions to the long side in NZD. Overall they have 16,648 to the long side and 17,011 to the short side. The important fact about this is that the last week 2,038 positions were added. We should expect some strength in NZD
-The price had taken the sell side liquidity. The yellow circle show the low that took the liquidity.
-The price is making higher highs and higher lows.
-Price is chasing buy side liquidity