Trade Journal 2
Updated
Welcome again, today we are on the NZDUSD which for a few technical reasons I have gone short on, and will likely hold onto for the remainder of the week, assuming price action doesnt dictate other wise.
So, why short?
The daily level of 0.58138 is fast approaching, and price seems still on its way to that level with no obvious reversal coming, at least in terms of price action
Coming into the hourly time frame, we can see a double top was formed and price has been following that, essentially text book like. Generally speaking price breaks the neckline, retests it, and ultimately continues its merry little journey to complete the pattern, twice the height of the pattern, in this case, a double top.
We can see that in recent days that price has done that, and the previous days close was right on the neckline indicating a continuation in current trend.
Dropping down to the 15m time frame, again we can see yet another double top.
If you compare the dates, you should be able to orientate whereabouts we are in relation to the daily, hourly and 15m time frames.
Looking left on the line labelled resistance, you can see that the push down from the double top, has been tested and still indicated bearish pressure. Over the coming day, or two, I am expecting price to break the neckline, and ultimately push into the lows of the past two days
Funnily enough, in the 5m timeframe, we see another double top. It fits my rules perfectly, a retest of the first top, a bearish candle immediately after. Usually when I enter these patterns on a low time frame like the 5m or the 15m, I pay attention up to the target which is labelled on the indicator in the off chance that price bounces, completes the pattern and is done with.
However, for added spice, I dont take profit at those points... I go up time frames and target the hourly target, or if there is one on the daily, the daily target.
So with all that said, I am now short NZDCAD.
Stop loss is at 0.59301
Entry is at 0.59192
Target is at 0.58450
2% of account risk
1:6.81 RR
At 1:2, stops will be brought into breakeven sort of levels, and I will then manually trail the stop loss as dictated by structure
Wish me luck, I think it will be an interesting trade
Stay safe
Harry
So, why short?
The daily level of 0.58138 is fast approaching, and price seems still on its way to that level with no obvious reversal coming, at least in terms of price action
Coming into the hourly time frame, we can see a double top was formed and price has been following that, essentially text book like. Generally speaking price breaks the neckline, retests it, and ultimately continues its merry little journey to complete the pattern, twice the height of the pattern, in this case, a double top.
We can see that in recent days that price has done that, and the previous days close was right on the neckline indicating a continuation in current trend.
Dropping down to the 15m time frame, again we can see yet another double top.
If you compare the dates, you should be able to orientate whereabouts we are in relation to the daily, hourly and 15m time frames.
Looking left on the line labelled resistance, you can see that the push down from the double top, has been tested and still indicated bearish pressure. Over the coming day, or two, I am expecting price to break the neckline, and ultimately push into the lows of the past two days
Funnily enough, in the 5m timeframe, we see another double top. It fits my rules perfectly, a retest of the first top, a bearish candle immediately after. Usually when I enter these patterns on a low time frame like the 5m or the 15m, I pay attention up to the target which is labelled on the indicator in the off chance that price bounces, completes the pattern and is done with.
However, for added spice, I dont take profit at those points... I go up time frames and target the hourly target, or if there is one on the daily, the daily target.
So with all that said, I am now short NZDCAD.
Stop loss is at 0.59301
Entry is at 0.59192
Target is at 0.58450
2% of account risk
1:6.81 RR
At 1:2, stops will be brought into breakeven sort of levels, and I will then manually trail the stop loss as dictated by structure
Wish me luck, I think it will be an interesting trade
Stay safe
Harry
Trade closed: stop reached
Took a 2% loss. Overnight. I'm still maintaining a bearish view of this pair, but clearly the entry timing was wrong or stops were too tight. I marked up the previous daily high from 2 days ago and if its marked up, then stops should be higher than that. I was 2 or 3 different ideas and such, but only thought of stop using only 1 of them, which was in line with my double top strategy.
Backtested data hints that VWAP below the top has a reaction.
I did follow the rules though, and it was simply a failed trade.
2% loss
Roughly -1.9 for the week
Roughly 7.5% for the month so far.
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