NZD/USD blasts to 2024 highs as golden cross triggered
Given its status as cyclical currency closely tied to the fortunes of the global economy, it comes as no surprise that NZD/USD blasted to a 2024 YTD high following China’s latest stimulus announcement.
Having broken long-running downtrend resistance, and with momentum indicators providing bullish signals without being overbought, there could further upside to come for the Kiwi as speculation swirls that China may announce fiscal stimulus measures in the coming days to boost flagging domestic demand.
Put simply, ahead of Golden Week holidays in China, risks appear skewed to the upside near-term even after the run we’ve seen. We’ve even seen the 50-day moving average cross the 200-day moving average from below, delivering a golden cross. Even though I’m not putting any weight on the event trigger, it’s like the cherry on top for bulls.
One option is to buy the break now with a tight stop below for protection, although that screens as a lower probability play with the pair sitting in between two levels.
My preference would be to wait for a potential pullback towards .6300, allowing for a stop to be placed below the level or former downtrend for protection. Alternatively, if we see a push above .6370, you could buy the break with a tight stop below for protection. For the latter setup to work from a risk-reward perspective, you’d need to target .6540.
Good luck!
DS
Having broken long-running downtrend resistance, and with momentum indicators providing bullish signals without being overbought, there could further upside to come for the Kiwi as speculation swirls that China may announce fiscal stimulus measures in the coming days to boost flagging domestic demand.
Put simply, ahead of Golden Week holidays in China, risks appear skewed to the upside near-term even after the run we’ve seen. We’ve even seen the 50-day moving average cross the 200-day moving average from below, delivering a golden cross. Even though I’m not putting any weight on the event trigger, it’s like the cherry on top for bulls.
One option is to buy the break now with a tight stop below for protection, although that screens as a lower probability play with the pair sitting in between two levels.
My preference would be to wait for a potential pullback towards .6300, allowing for a stop to be placed below the level or former downtrend for protection. Alternatively, if we see a push above .6370, you could buy the break with a tight stop below for protection. For the latter setup to work from a risk-reward perspective, you’d need to target .6540.
Good luck!
DS
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