NZDUSD_Technical_Fundamnetal_01042019Weekly
NZD exchange rates will depend on the following factors this week:
April 2 (Tuesday) -
• NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ) (Q1) [Source: FXStreet]
• GDT Price Index [Myfxbook]
The NZIER Business Confidence released by the New Zealand Institute of
Economic Research shows the business outlook in New Zealand. The
Business Confidence allows analysis of the economic situation in the short
term. Increasing numbers indicate increases in business investment that
lead to higher levels of output. Thus, a high reading is seen as positive (or
bullish), while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Previous
value was -17% and guesstimated value are not present. According to
guesstimated value CHF has no clue whether it should move to the north or
south.
The GDT Price Index, released by Global Dairy Trade, uses a weighted average of the percentage changes in prices. GDT Price Indices are used to avoid the bias of a simple weighted average price and to give a more accurate reflection of the price movements between trading events.
The previous percentage was 1.9% and the guesstimated percentage is 0.3%.
According to guesstimated percentage NZD will go bearish.
Overall Daily Forecast: NZD Bearish
Overall Weekly Forecast: NZD Bearish
US DOLLAR
i. PMI - Manufacturing
ii. Retail Sales
iii . Inventory
iv. Employment/Unemployment
v. Non-Farm reports (NFP/Unemployement/EMployment Change)
PMI is leading the indicator of economic health. It has a direct connection with economic condition. This composite(PMI) data is clearing the top level business institute health. If a business institute is doing well then the economic health will get better. If PMI (COMPOSITE) percentage is better than expectation, the currency will go for bullish movement. If it is not, then the currency will do the opposite.
The Retail Sales shows all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes. The retail sales index is often taken as an indicator of consumer confidence. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Generally speaking, the positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the currency. The release of the Retail Sales report may have an impact on dollar quotes. A slowdown in the growth of retail sales shows that consumers have reduced their spending level. This may lead to a decline in economic activity and have a negative effect on dollar quotes.
This week is going to be the influential week of the month as most of the news published are key indicators such as NFP and Non-Farm Employment and unemployment reports are going to be published and also backed by FOMC & FED speeches. As the results of the report would not only drive the market but the driving force direction will be directly dependant on previous reports and overall economic condition. For now, the fog is yet to be cleared.
Technical
Price is hovering on the historic support/resistance level 0.68250
MACD showing a bullish growing trend
RSI shows an upward curve
Candles are surfing on an ascending trend line later forming a wedge/ triangle breakout joining with the historic support resistance line
Thus if Fundamental factors drive price upward causing a breakout, We will be looking towards a zone in 0.69300
If fundamental factors causes the price to bounce back from the historic support resistance line, it will go down till 0.6700 zone.
April 2 (Tuesday) -
• NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ) (Q1) [Source: FXStreet]
• GDT Price Index [Myfxbook]
The NZIER Business Confidence released by the New Zealand Institute of
Economic Research shows the business outlook in New Zealand. The
Business Confidence allows analysis of the economic situation in the short
term. Increasing numbers indicate increases in business investment that
lead to higher levels of output. Thus, a high reading is seen as positive (or
bullish), while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Previous
value was -17% and guesstimated value are not present. According to
guesstimated value CHF has no clue whether it should move to the north or
south.
The GDT Price Index, released by Global Dairy Trade, uses a weighted average of the percentage changes in prices. GDT Price Indices are used to avoid the bias of a simple weighted average price and to give a more accurate reflection of the price movements between trading events.
The previous percentage was 1.9% and the guesstimated percentage is 0.3%.
According to guesstimated percentage NZD will go bearish.
Overall Daily Forecast: NZD Bearish
Overall Weekly Forecast: NZD Bearish
US DOLLAR
i. PMI - Manufacturing
ii. Retail Sales
iii . Inventory
iv. Employment/Unemployment
v. Non-Farm reports (NFP/Unemployement/EMployment Change)
PMI is leading the indicator of economic health. It has a direct connection with economic condition. This composite(PMI) data is clearing the top level business institute health. If a business institute is doing well then the economic health will get better. If PMI (COMPOSITE) percentage is better than expectation, the currency will go for bullish movement. If it is not, then the currency will do the opposite.
The Retail Sales shows all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes. The retail sales index is often taken as an indicator of consumer confidence. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Generally speaking, the positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the currency. The release of the Retail Sales report may have an impact on dollar quotes. A slowdown in the growth of retail sales shows that consumers have reduced their spending level. This may lead to a decline in economic activity and have a negative effect on dollar quotes.
This week is going to be the influential week of the month as most of the news published are key indicators such as NFP and Non-Farm Employment and unemployment reports are going to be published and also backed by FOMC & FED speeches. As the results of the report would not only drive the market but the driving force direction will be directly dependant on previous reports and overall economic condition. For now, the fog is yet to be cleared.
Technical
Price is hovering on the historic support/resistance level 0.68250
MACD showing a bullish growing trend
RSI shows an upward curve
Candles are surfing on an ascending trend line later forming a wedge/ triangle breakout joining with the historic support resistance line
Thus if Fundamental factors drive price upward causing a breakout, We will be looking towards a zone in 0.69300
If fundamental factors causes the price to bounce back from the historic support resistance line, it will go down till 0.6700 zone.
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