Short

Updated

$NZD v. $USD - Model Eyes 0.55462 | #RBNZ #kiwi #elliottwave

Friends,

Following is the current #kiwi chart, highlighting a few of the recent market geometries that have developed, such as an Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle, which offered the mechanism of descent to the current levels, whereas a nascent Geo is now offering its own pacing, affording price a soft landing towards the Predictive/Forecasting Model target, which was defined this past August 17th, 2015 as:

TG-Lox = 0.55462 - 17 AUG 2015

A more developed analysis follows in the discussion thread, looking into greater technical details and offering the argument supporting further downside.

Best,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA

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Twitter: 4xForecaster
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Note

15 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price has completed a 5-wave advance, implying that a correction is pending at this point. What is important to recognize here is that the current impulse is born out of its own correction from a massive preceding decline. Hence, there are two important points to keep in mind:

1 - A 5-wave correction is ALWAYS a zig-zag, thus expect a 5-3-5 internal development. In this particular case, we have the first 5 of the 5-3-5 construction, so what should ensue is a 3-wave decline resting ABOVE the origin of this new upward impulse.

2 - Any correction that follows a massive move would itself self-correct into significant depths, in the Fibonacci order of 0.618, or most often 0.786 or 0.886 - This is the depth that defines the EAGLE strategic method.

Hence, we need to answer only ONE question here: To what higher-low level would this correction from the current 5-wave of a 5-3-5 bring us to? To answer this question, I have draw a speculative ZZ in the chart, describing a probable decline from the current height, and a decline that would come into close alignment with the consolidation that preceded the current impulse:

If the current top holds, then we are looking at this potential interim development.

Best,

David Alcindor

Note

ADDENDUM - Tech-Note:

I have to say that I am particularly biased here, influenced by my own Geo, where points 3 and 4 are almost alway connected by a simple Elliott Wave zig-zag, as speculatively drawn in the chart above.

David

Note

21 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price reversed as forecast, expecting a simple reciprocal geometry in the interim, such as an Elliott Wave ZZ, whereas net forecast remains bearish with target intact and in force:

David Alcindor

Note

27 OCT 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

remains on task, expected to weave a simple #elliottwave correction:

NZD #kiwi #RBNZ #forex

David Alcindor

Note

07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains closely tethered to dashed forecast pathway ... There is no change in bearish target:

David Alcindor

Note

16 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to dashed forecast pathway, nearing approximate support area as shown:

David Alcindor

Note

18 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price bouncing off of forecast level, remains tightly adherent to dashed forecast pathway:

David Alcindor

PS: I would pay particular attention to the behavior as well - David

Note

06 JAN 2016 - Chart Update / tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to dashed arrow forecast. Interim rallying remains high-probability to 0.70118/0.71354 range in the intermediate term. Long-term remains bearish with L/T target pending at 0.55462, as defined this past August 17th, 2015:

Best,

David Alcindor

Note

19 JAN 2016 - Chart Update:

Rallying to forecast 0.70118/0.71354 range still in force:

David Alcindor

Note

02 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tightly tethered to dashed arrow forecast; Now nears target range of 0.70118/0.71354:

Best,

David Alcindor

Note

24 APR 2016 - Chart update / Tech-Note:

Again, price remains strictly adherent to the forecast dashed line, ultimately hitting the 0.70118/0.71354 target range:

Predictive/Forecasting Model remains unanswered per open target pending at the bearish 0.55462 level, defined last August 2015.

Best,

David Alcindor

Note

09 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to dashed forecast lines, remains encapsulated within the 0.70118/0.71254 forecast range:

Note

... (cont'd) ...

Bears prevail - Bearish TG-Lox = 0.55462 defined last August 17th, 2015 remains intact and in force.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

Note

26 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

26 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Looking at the H4 level, a WW/Geo has completed, and price appears to rally slightly from the "Hit". Students of the CROW Code will see that a reversal is under way at this and scaled-down level, in support of the original WEEKLY chart, which continues to eye a bearish target defined last 2015 Summer (17 AUG 2015) as TG-Lox = 0.55462 - Link to original target setting in the comment field: bit.ly/2ahZUBt .:

For the fundamentally driven investors at this larger scale, look for the global dairy trade pricing in whole milk power over a 5-year period is shaping up into a bearish impulse in terms of an Elliott Wave formation, with recent oscillation terminating a 4th wave correction. Further downside is expected to carve lower lows, and thus to influence NZD to carve lower lows - Here is a site for your leisurely perusal: globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/whole-milk-powder/

In terms of central bank intervention, a recent rate decline to 2.250 % from 2.500% on 03-10-2016 was likely influenced by significant slow down in the economies of immediate export targets (China, Australia) as well as from a global recessionary momentum that is likely to push that rate further down.

Over the past 12 months, RBNZ intervened 5 times, bringing rate from 3.500% to a current 2.250% at 0.250 increments. I would expect that further rate decline be in the agenda, anticipating further global slow down.

As the differential in Fed and RBNZ rates decreases, expect the NZD vs. pair to decline significantly further down, to levels defined in the WEEKLY chart:

Regards,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974

4xForecaster

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