SHORT NZDUSD: RBNZ DOVISH ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT HIGHLIGHTS
The RBNZ was dovish in their economic assesment and IMO used it to communicate their 100% commitment to a OCR cut. Key drivers of this view were quotes such as "futher policy easing will be required, and monetary policy will remain accomodative.", "NZD currency strength makes it difficult to hit target inflation" and "NZD exachange rate is too high stronger NZD implies inflation outlook will be weak"
So clearly there is no illusion as to the RBNZ's August 10th decision. Perhaps the only question, given the extensiveness of the dovish rhetoic/ comments is how much will the RBNZ cut? could it be 50bps rather than than the usual 25bps given how aggressively dovish they have came out on the record.
Trading Strategy:
1. From current levels there is little interest in adding fresh shorts - shorts still standing from 0.72/3 are firm and should be held. A 25bps cut IMO will take NZDUSD to 0.68TP and a 50bps cut, with the shock pricing it even lower, likely to 0.65/4.
2. Risks to this downside view continue to be RBNZ driven. As we have seen in the past 2wks Kiwi has traded at the mercy of the RBNZ - 2wks ago when the OCR rate cut initially began to price us to 0.70, the RBNZ came on record talking about kiwi house prices limiting the ability to cut the OCR which caused NZD$ to rally back to 12m highs, where then a week later, the RBNZ announced their emergency "economic assesment" which completely flipped the script back on the dovish side - now this week the assesment has been released and is dovish with the rate hike being price now.
- But in the 3wks between now and the rate decision, im sure there is a level for more RBNZ comments to conflict this dovish sentiment.
RBNZ Economic Assessment Highlights:
-RBNZ: Further Policy Easing Likely
-RBNZ: Will Continue to Watch Emerging Flow of Data
-RBNZ: House Price Inflation Excessive
-RBNZ: Bank Lending Curbs Aim To Limit Financial Sector Instability
-RBNZ: Many Uncertainties Around Outlook
-RBNZ: High New Zealand Dollar Adding To Headiwinds For Dairy, Manufacturing
-RBNZ: High NZ Dollar Makes It Harder To Achieve Inflation Target
So clearly there is no illusion as to the RBNZ's August 10th decision. Perhaps the only question, given the extensiveness of the dovish rhetoic/ comments is how much will the RBNZ cut? could it be 50bps rather than than the usual 25bps given how aggressively dovish they have came out on the record.
Trading Strategy:
1. From current levels there is little interest in adding fresh shorts - shorts still standing from 0.72/3 are firm and should be held. A 25bps cut IMO will take NZDUSD to 0.68TP and a 50bps cut, with the shock pricing it even lower, likely to 0.65/4.
2. Risks to this downside view continue to be RBNZ driven. As we have seen in the past 2wks Kiwi has traded at the mercy of the RBNZ - 2wks ago when the OCR rate cut initially began to price us to 0.70, the RBNZ came on record talking about kiwi house prices limiting the ability to cut the OCR which caused NZD$ to rally back to 12m highs, where then a week later, the RBNZ announced their emergency "economic assesment" which completely flipped the script back on the dovish side - now this week the assesment has been released and is dovish with the rate hike being price now.
- But in the 3wks between now and the rate decision, im sure there is a level for more RBNZ comments to conflict this dovish sentiment.
RBNZ Economic Assessment Highlights:
-RBNZ: Further Policy Easing Likely
-RBNZ: Will Continue to Watch Emerging Flow of Data
-RBNZ: House Price Inflation Excessive
-RBNZ: Bank Lending Curbs Aim To Limit Financial Sector Instability
-RBNZ: Many Uncertainties Around Outlook
-RBNZ: High New Zealand Dollar Adding To Headiwinds For Dairy, Manufacturing
-RBNZ: High NZ Dollar Makes It Harder To Achieve Inflation Target
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