The NZDUSD could offer a range break opportunity this week. Despite gaining 125 pips following a more dovish than expected Fed, the pair fell short of overtaking the 0.7040 handle.
Buyers also just barely missed out on a weekly bullish engulfing pattern. But despite the near miss, the rally that started on Wednesday may not be done just yet.
In fact, given the technicals over the last few months, I’m favoring a break to the upside. However, I won’t enter until I see a daily close above 0.7040. Until that time comes, I’ll remain on the sideline.
If we do get a bullish break from this range, a move toward resistance at 0.7133 would be the likely outcome. This level served as support twice last month as well as the first day of March.
Key support for the week ahead comes in at Thursday’s low near 0.6970. This area served as a pivot in early January and is also the November 2016 low.