For NZD/USD at 0.6017 here, I’d put the odds roughly at:
Rally above 0.6379 first ~60%
Drop below 0.5656 first ~40%
Why the slight tilt to the upside?
Higher‐low pattern: Since last autumn’s peak near 0.638, the lows have stepped up (≈0.550 → 0.565 → 0.582 → now 0.601), showing buyers pulling in earlier on each pullback.
Mid‐range flip: The 0.5656 zone held as support through April/May, and price has cleared the halfway mark of this range with follow-through buying.
Momentum: Daily candles on the advances have been clean, and there’s no obvious bearish divergence warning yet—leaving room for another leg up to 0.638.
That said, 0.6379 is a strong multi-month ceiling, so there remains a meaningful ~40% chance of rolling over back toward 0.5656 before tagging the top.
Rally above 0.6379 first ~60%
Drop below 0.5656 first ~40%
Why the slight tilt to the upside?
Higher‐low pattern: Since last autumn’s peak near 0.638, the lows have stepped up (≈0.550 → 0.565 → 0.582 → now 0.601), showing buyers pulling in earlier on each pullback.
Mid‐range flip: The 0.5656 zone held as support through April/May, and price has cleared the halfway mark of this range with follow-through buying.
Momentum: Daily candles on the advances have been clean, and there’s no obvious bearish divergence warning yet—leaving room for another leg up to 0.638.
That said, 0.6379 is a strong multi-month ceiling, so there remains a meaningful ~40% chance of rolling over back toward 0.5656 before tagging the top.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.