Trade set up
Tactically buyers of NZDUSD can position to enter a buy trade either after a closing break of resistance 0.6883 (16 November high), or after a retracement and retest of the top of the bullish flag pattern around 0.6790. A break out of the flag pattern has given us the confidence to trade this from the long side. We are targeting 0.7100 in weeks, increasing confidence here should price break the 16 November high
Why we like it
Jerome Powell hit the market with comments sending the US Dollar lower, although we didn’t actually see the comments as that dovish. We've seen a bearish outside day reversal candle in the US Dollar Index, and we want to see a break of the rising channel in the USD Index on the weekly before we firmly believe in continued USD weakness.
Reduced expectations of the future Fed rate hikes in 2019 have manifested into NZD and EM strength and the market is gunning for a pause in the Feds hiking cycle. This should limit the downside in NZDUSD, although let’s see how this weekends G20 meeting plays into this.
Disclaimer.
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