NZD/USD TRADING PLAN – MAY 21 | RETEST OR CONTINUATION? 🔍
After several steady bullish sessions, NZD/USD is pulling back slightly from the 0.5961 resistance zone. The pair remains within a well-defined ascending channel on the H1 chart and is approaching a key support area around 0.5910 — a zone that could trigger a technical bounce and continuation of the current bullish trend.
🌍 MACRO CONTEXT:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of weakness following disappointing CPI and PPI data. This opens up room for commodity currencies like NZD to recover further.
Meanwhile, New Zealand's domestic consumption data has exceeded expectations, and the RBNZ continues to maintain a stable policy outlook — a medium-term bullish sign for NZD.
Market sentiment is leaning cautiously against the USD, especially as the Fed holds its “no cut but no hike” stance — boosting interest in alternative currencies.
📊 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (H1):
NZD/USD is trading within an ascending price channel.
EMA 13 is above EMA 34 and EMA 200 — a positive short-term trend signal.
Two important zones to watch today are 0.5910 (key support) and 0.5961 (key resistance).
🎯 TRADE SETUPS FOR TODAY:
✅ SCENARIO A – BUY THE RETEST:
If price tests the 0.5910 zone and shows strong reaction:
BUY ZONE: 0.5910 – 0.5915
SL: 0.5890
TP: 0.5960 → 0.5980 → 0.6000 → 0.6006
→ This zone aligns with ascending channel support + prior FVG → strong rebound probability.
✅ SCENARIO B – BREAKOUT & CONTINUATION:
If price breaks and holds above 0.5961:
BUY SCALP: 0.5965 – 0.5970
SL: 0.5950
TP: 0.5980 → 0.6000 → 0.6006
❌ SCENARIO C – BEARISH BREAKDOWN:
If price fails to hold above 0.5910 and closes H1 candle below it:
SELL SCALP: 0.5900 – 0.5895
SL: 0.5915
TP: 0.5870 → 0.5850 → 0.5820
📌 FINAL THOUGHTS:
NZD/USD is at a critical decision point — this could be a retest before continuation to 0.6000 or the beginning of a deeper drop.
Watch the 0.5910 level closely to determine market direction.
⚠️ Risk management is key — high volatility expected as U.S. PMI data is set for release during today’s NY session.
🧠 Be patient. Let price come to your zone. React, don’t predict.
After several steady bullish sessions, NZD/USD is pulling back slightly from the 0.5961 resistance zone. The pair remains within a well-defined ascending channel on the H1 chart and is approaching a key support area around 0.5910 — a zone that could trigger a technical bounce and continuation of the current bullish trend.
🌍 MACRO CONTEXT:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of weakness following disappointing CPI and PPI data. This opens up room for commodity currencies like NZD to recover further.
Meanwhile, New Zealand's domestic consumption data has exceeded expectations, and the RBNZ continues to maintain a stable policy outlook — a medium-term bullish sign for NZD.
Market sentiment is leaning cautiously against the USD, especially as the Fed holds its “no cut but no hike” stance — boosting interest in alternative currencies.
📊 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (H1):
NZD/USD is trading within an ascending price channel.
EMA 13 is above EMA 34 and EMA 200 — a positive short-term trend signal.
Two important zones to watch today are 0.5910 (key support) and 0.5961 (key resistance).
🎯 TRADE SETUPS FOR TODAY:
✅ SCENARIO A – BUY THE RETEST:
If price tests the 0.5910 zone and shows strong reaction:
BUY ZONE: 0.5910 – 0.5915
SL: 0.5890
TP: 0.5960 → 0.5980 → 0.6000 → 0.6006
→ This zone aligns with ascending channel support + prior FVG → strong rebound probability.
✅ SCENARIO B – BREAKOUT & CONTINUATION:
If price breaks and holds above 0.5961:
BUY SCALP: 0.5965 – 0.5970
SL: 0.5950
TP: 0.5980 → 0.6000 → 0.6006
❌ SCENARIO C – BEARISH BREAKDOWN:
If price fails to hold above 0.5910 and closes H1 candle below it:
SELL SCALP: 0.5900 – 0.5895
SL: 0.5915
TP: 0.5870 → 0.5850 → 0.5820
📌 FINAL THOUGHTS:
NZD/USD is at a critical decision point — this could be a retest before continuation to 0.6000 or the beginning of a deeper drop.
Watch the 0.5910 level closely to determine market direction.
⚠️ Risk management is key — high volatility expected as U.S. PMI data is set for release during today’s NY session.
🧠 Be patient. Let price come to your zone. React, don’t predict.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 7 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 7 to 15 Signals Vip
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 7 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 7 to 15 Signals Vip
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.