ridethepig | NZD 2020 Macro Map
Updated
A good time to update the roadmap for NZDUSD as we enter into the final chapter of 2019. The market has been heavily short NZDUSD all year, pricing in further cuts from RBNZ, the anticipation of a dovish CB was short-circuited and we are starting to see a reduction in their short positions. This was evident in my previous post:
From a strictly macro perspective, NZD is not expected to outperform however the housing market is showing signs of strength as collateral from AUD. I see room for markets to reduce further the over pricing of RBNZ cuts, which will support NZD in the short-medium term.
On the USD side, as widely mentioned here and in the Telegram channel, USD weakness is reaching out theatres and will be even more evident in high-beta currencies like NZD.
Those following will also know I am long NZD crosses, NZDCAD continues to make a lot of sense with CAD longs being unwound after the dovish BoC.
Important to note key risks to this trade come from unexpected RBNZ intervention.
Good luck all those planning FX trades into 2020. The environment is going to become increasingly difficult as investors position around US election risks, my 2020 FX outlook reports along with other strategy research in the coming weeks. 2020 is setting up for fireworks on the FX board with expectations and valuations starting to diverge and with late cycle concerns creeping back in through the back door to put the cherry on top. For those interested can send a PM on Tradingview.
From a strictly macro perspective, NZD is not expected to outperform however the housing market is showing signs of strength as collateral from AUD. I see room for markets to reduce further the over pricing of RBNZ cuts, which will support NZD in the short-medium term.
On the USD side, as widely mentioned here and in the Telegram channel, USD weakness is reaching out theatres and will be even more evident in high-beta currencies like NZD.
Those following will also know I am long NZD crosses, NZDCAD continues to make a lot of sense with CAD longs being unwound after the dovish BoC.
Important to note key risks to this trade come from unexpected RBNZ intervention.
Good luck all those planning FX trades into 2020. The environment is going to become increasingly difficult as investors position around US election risks, my 2020 FX outlook reports along with other strategy research in the coming weeks. 2020 is setting up for fireworks on the FX board with expectations and valuations starting to diverge and with late cycle concerns creeping back in through the back door to put the cherry on top. For those interested can send a PM on Tradingview.
Note
Here looking to cover some longs at the first key 0.652x target 
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First targets cleared on the test of 0.652x !!Note
0.660x TP2 hit!!Note
0.670x TP3 hit!! A flawless leg so far, I would encourage all those to see the diagram here where we added longs. It is perfectly reasonable to continue working the buy side:
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