3/21/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
OBTC
Portfolio update into Q end
- thanks for your comments, suggestions, and to the trolls and of course those who challenge my thinking with reason (you know who you are - and I appreciate you keeping me sane and keeping emotion in check).
- as I roll into Q end and think about 2Q a few things come to mind as i've chewed, slept and showered only thinking about markets, risk, alternatives and am thoroughly challenged and intellectually stimulated to say the least. gave up some early YTD gains, but some nice wins (if you've followed you know NXT, UBER in particular) keep me at a low double digit on the year. let's build on that.
- hard money will matter. we've seen gold make it's move and probably continues to head higher. but that "insurance and WTF premium" that is not yet embedded into BTC will find it's way into BTC. there's no harder money than BTC and it can hold a lot more flows. when i think through all my alternatives in risk, they're usually "can it outperform BTC" or "can it offer an asymmetric or orthogonal benefit?", if not (and most assets - the answer is no), i "ignore". so while it's VERY possible duration assets continue to bleed, the question you need to ask yourself is... if BTC at $60k or even lower is worth "the wait" and remaining out of the pool to stack or it makes sense to take a reasonable position here and weather the vol because the way back up likely is met with no offer.
- thereforeOBTC goes back to a 33% position in my book (it was almost 100% this time last year, so this still is "reasonable" for me and i'm no stranger to it's vol). the asset still trades at a 6% discount to spot, so at today's price of $84k you're still buying sub $80k spot.
- i also continue to expect
NXT to massively outperform, and the asymmetric edge is a consensus and expectation and generally "shunned" industry (solar) that has not yet discovered this gem despite it actually holding up really well YTD (AND even on it's BTC pair!). i believe we'll start to print $1 bn revenue quarters this year and FCF will become 700-800 mn next year, not 500 mn and flat on cons. estimates, which will probably garner closer to a 7% discount rate (before market decides growing FCF at 15-20% p.a. for a few more years deserves 5% or lower)... and that 750 mm/0.075 = $10-11 bn... and that's a double. and it keeps running, so the re-investment or rearranging risk is low. this is a secular winner at the early innings, so i'd rather be larger exposure. as many of you know my preferred vehicle remains the deep ITM 2027 leaps for some leverage, but responsibly.
- and i have a rental book, and names i play on EPS here and there (i write up maybe 20% of the names i play to keep the digital pen moving). i like
UBER, 
GAMB, 
VRT, 
BLDE and a few others. these are between 2 and 5% positions and I have them "rented" (covered calls) for some income on an otherwise cashy book.
- i still pack between 20-25% cash on any given week. just depends. but i'd like ammo to either add toNXT, OBTC ... or if we get a dip back toward $100, something like 
NVDA and to re-build 
TSM (can we just get that dang INTC headline already!). the problem with these stocks is they're more rates-tariff-news-linked than fundamental. the IRL component matters more... and i'd rather stick to what i know best.
- hopefully that wasn't too confusing. here's where i stand right now +/-
33% OBTC
30% NXT LEAPS
5% VST (covered, renting ATM monthly)
5% UBER (covered, renting ATM monthly)
3% GAMB
2% BLDE
22% cash
so let's see. next few weeks *should* be green on my guess. flows. month end rebalance (to buy). i think we get a pause in tariffs etc. etc. but i think the ultimate put all the money to work "event" is yet to occur and might still be several weeks and some further chop to boot... around the corner. so i'm here playing the ups/downs/all arounds. i traded
NKE short last night. bid 
DECK and am back out. so i'm being nimble on the corners to keep test driving and figuring out which vehicles i'll want to own once we get that "pencils down" event.
but we're not there yet. so i still want to keep my foot on the gas where risk/reward is favorable in a YE context (in a 2 or 3-1 basis hence OBTC and NXT), but where i'm still being practical and not digging my head in the sand and screaming into the wind. the market doesn't care what i or you or anyone thinks. and i need to keep reminding myself of that, because it's how i got to this point and losing sight of some of these basics and operating on emotion is where you get rekt and aren't prepared for what comes next.
heads up. keep me posted what you see. what other plays i need to keep high on the radar.
and let's roll into 2Q successfully together.
V
OBTCPortfolio update into Q end
- thanks for your comments, suggestions, and to the trolls and of course those who challenge my thinking with reason (you know who you are - and I appreciate you keeping me sane and keeping emotion in check).
- as I roll into Q end and think about 2Q a few things come to mind as i've chewed, slept and showered only thinking about markets, risk, alternatives and am thoroughly challenged and intellectually stimulated to say the least. gave up some early YTD gains, but some nice wins (if you've followed you know NXT, UBER in particular) keep me at a low double digit on the year. let's build on that.
- hard money will matter. we've seen gold make it's move and probably continues to head higher. but that "insurance and WTF premium" that is not yet embedded into BTC will find it's way into BTC. there's no harder money than BTC and it can hold a lot more flows. when i think through all my alternatives in risk, they're usually "can it outperform BTC" or "can it offer an asymmetric or orthogonal benefit?", if not (and most assets - the answer is no), i "ignore". so while it's VERY possible duration assets continue to bleed, the question you need to ask yourself is... if BTC at $60k or even lower is worth "the wait" and remaining out of the pool to stack or it makes sense to take a reasonable position here and weather the vol because the way back up likely is met with no offer.
- therefore
OBTC goes back to a 33% position in my book (it was almost 100% this time last year, so this still is "reasonable" for me and i'm no stranger to it's vol). the asset still trades at a 6% discount to spot, so at today's price of $84k you're still buying sub $80k spot.- i also continue to expect
NXT to massively outperform, and the asymmetric edge is a consensus and expectation and generally "shunned" industry (solar) that has not yet discovered this gem despite it actually holding up really well YTD (AND even on it's BTC pair!). i believe we'll start to print $1 bn revenue quarters this year and FCF will become 700-800 mn next year, not 500 mn and flat on cons. estimates, which will probably garner closer to a 7% discount rate (before market decides growing FCF at 15-20% p.a. for a few more years deserves 5% or lower)... and that 750 mm/0.075 = $10-11 bn... and that's a double. and it keeps running, so the re-investment or rearranging risk is low. this is a secular winner at the early innings, so i'd rather be larger exposure. as many of you know my preferred vehicle remains the deep ITM 2027 leaps for some leverage, but responsibly.- and i have a rental book, and names i play on EPS here and there (i write up maybe 20% of the names i play to keep the digital pen moving). i like
UBER, GAMB, VRT, BLDE and a few others. these are between 2 and 5% positions and I have them "rented" (covered calls) for some income on an otherwise cashy book.- i still pack between 20-25% cash on any given week. just depends. but i'd like ammo to either add to
NXT, OBTC ... or if we get a dip back toward $100, something like NVDA and to re-build TSM (can we just get that dang INTC headline already!). the problem with these stocks is they're more rates-tariff-news-linked than fundamental. the IRL component matters more... and i'd rather stick to what i know best.- hopefully that wasn't too confusing. here's where i stand right now +/-
33% OBTC
30% NXT LEAPS
5% VST (covered, renting ATM monthly)
5% UBER (covered, renting ATM monthly)
3% GAMB
2% BLDE
22% cash
so let's see. next few weeks *should* be green on my guess. flows. month end rebalance (to buy). i think we get a pause in tariffs etc. etc. but i think the ultimate put all the money to work "event" is yet to occur and might still be several weeks and some further chop to boot... around the corner. so i'm here playing the ups/downs/all arounds. i traded
NKE short last night. bid DECK and am back out. so i'm being nimble on the corners to keep test driving and figuring out which vehicles i'll want to own once we get that "pencils down" event.but we're not there yet. so i still want to keep my foot on the gas where risk/reward is favorable in a YE context (in a 2 or 3-1 basis hence OBTC and NXT), but where i'm still being practical and not digging my head in the sand and screaming into the wind. the market doesn't care what i or you or anyone thinks. and i need to keep reminding myself of that, because it's how i got to this point and losing sight of some of these basics and operating on emotion is where you get rekt and aren't prepared for what comes next.
heads up. keep me posted what you see. what other plays i need to keep high on the radar.
and let's roll into 2Q successfully together.
V
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.