7/18/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
OBTC
Portfolio update Friday
- it should be no surprise to you if you've followed my notes (to myself, which is really the point to airing everything out - though the friendships I've made have been a wonderful bonus)... that
BTC is really the asset I know best, have cleared POV on and where my edge comes from (the intersection of understanding deeply the supply/mining, demand, deep tech stack/ dev side, and tradfi angles).
- so at this point, spotBTC at $120k is v strong.
- are there some signals here/ there that we reject $120k and head back to $100? $90k? sure, ofc. it's not where i spend most of my time. and why? b/c the direction is much higher. at this stage, there's 450 BTC mined a day. there are magnitudes more demand (5-10x on a given day). that's simple to understand if i gave you one ST data pt that is pretty illustrative. so $100k gets bought fast, $90k gets bought faster, $80k... i think might be off the table save for a black swan (always be ready for this) and upside is likely from $150k to $500k in a 12-18 mo context, i'd guess.
- and i can hedge out this ST tape that keeps me feeling like i'm waking up in the twilight zone. retail is going bananas on profitless garbage. but here's the thing guys. retail DOESN'T OWN BTC. so don't let people tell you "they will come" or "they will dump if their other chitcoin stonks dump". they're priced out. don't let the unit bias freak you out. you get what you pay for, a lot, in life. so while yes you could buy a lotto stock, leverage the hell out of it and "be rich", this is usually the fast lane to financial irrelevancy and never "getting ahead" before you just throw in the towel, forever. take the long game seriously. compounding 20-30% pa for many years might not be what X financial "gurus" are showing you. but i'd guess 80% of them won't be around 3-5 yr from now. i've done this long enough to have conviction on this POV. the sooner you realize that patience, consistency (singles not homeruns) are what drive LT success over a 30 year (and god willing) 50 year career... you'll see what i mean: ***the singles you hit in 10Y are today's grand slams in terms of their size***
- so with that all being said, i'm hedging my 70% OBTC position (which has taken a v long time to get to that size w/o affecting px too much) with IBIT ATM P's through Oct
- I've spoken to Osprey and the convert is going to happen. v likely they're trying to do an in-kind mechanism (which btw they should get sued for b/c it's for their advantage and at the disadvantage to investors seeking liquidity for YEARS) but nevertheless, their error and everyone's impatience gives you a 13-14% discount to SPOT bitcoin as I write this
- so the IBIT hedge allows me to "use" 3% of my capital and hedge almost HALF of this 70% (so 30-35% effective short). the idea being, if we do dump, it likely/ always happens fast (rolling liquidations) and i have bought myself the option to close the short and roll into more OBTC, or just keep my exposure w/o hedge. if OBTC converts early, great, i get a 10-15% pop. if OBTC converts on it's own terms, and we run into YE, i pay "3%" sure... but way more than make up for this in the px action of spot+OBTC px action.
- in other words:
- heads i win
- tails i win, maybe a bit less
NXT, GAMB and TSLA represent my only stock exposure at the moment
SES is small given it's market cap, and i have that locked up (sold a bunch of covered calls given today's px action) at the $1 strike for oct, so it's just a super high yield cash position for me at this rate
Hope that helps.
Have a good weekend my friends.
V
OBTCPortfolio update Friday
- it should be no surprise to you if you've followed my notes (to myself, which is really the point to airing everything out - though the friendships I've made have been a wonderful bonus)... that
BTC is really the asset I know best, have cleared POV on and where my edge comes from (the intersection of understanding deeply the supply/mining, demand, deep tech stack/ dev side, and tradfi angles).- so at this point, spot
BTC at $120k is v strong.- are there some signals here/ there that we reject $120k and head back to $100? $90k? sure, ofc. it's not where i spend most of my time. and why? b/c the direction is much higher. at this stage, there's 450 BTC mined a day. there are magnitudes more demand (5-10x on a given day). that's simple to understand if i gave you one ST data pt that is pretty illustrative. so $100k gets bought fast, $90k gets bought faster, $80k... i think might be off the table save for a black swan (always be ready for this) and upside is likely from $150k to $500k in a 12-18 mo context, i'd guess.
- and i can hedge out this ST tape that keeps me feeling like i'm waking up in the twilight zone. retail is going bananas on profitless garbage. but here's the thing guys. retail DOESN'T OWN BTC. so don't let people tell you "they will come" or "they will dump if their other chitcoin stonks dump". they're priced out. don't let the unit bias freak you out. you get what you pay for, a lot, in life. so while yes you could buy a lotto stock, leverage the hell out of it and "be rich", this is usually the fast lane to financial irrelevancy and never "getting ahead" before you just throw in the towel, forever. take the long game seriously. compounding 20-30% pa for many years might not be what X financial "gurus" are showing you. but i'd guess 80% of them won't be around 3-5 yr from now. i've done this long enough to have conviction on this POV. the sooner you realize that patience, consistency (singles not homeruns) are what drive LT success over a 30 year (and god willing) 50 year career... you'll see what i mean: ***the singles you hit in 10Y are today's grand slams in terms of their size***
- so with that all being said, i'm hedging my 70% OBTC position (which has taken a v long time to get to that size w/o affecting px too much) with IBIT ATM P's through Oct
- I've spoken to Osprey and the convert is going to happen. v likely they're trying to do an in-kind mechanism (which btw they should get sued for b/c it's for their advantage and at the disadvantage to investors seeking liquidity for YEARS) but nevertheless, their error and everyone's impatience gives you a 13-14% discount to SPOT bitcoin as I write this
- so the IBIT hedge allows me to "use" 3% of my capital and hedge almost HALF of this 70% (so 30-35% effective short). the idea being, if we do dump, it likely/ always happens fast (rolling liquidations) and i have bought myself the option to close the short and roll into more OBTC, or just keep my exposure w/o hedge. if OBTC converts early, great, i get a 10-15% pop. if OBTC converts on it's own terms, and we run into YE, i pay "3%" sure... but way more than make up for this in the px action of spot+OBTC px action.
- in other words:
- heads i win
- tails i win, maybe a bit less
NXT, GAMB and TSLA represent my only stock exposure at the moment
SES is small given it's market cap, and i have that locked up (sold a bunch of covered calls given today's px action) at the $1 strike for oct, so it's just a super high yield cash position for me at this rate
Hope that helps.
Have a good weekend my friends.
V
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.