OIL Hello
Looks like this patterns might decide Inflation or deflation.
I would guess deflation based on tariffs, due to the below reasons:
1. People have low purchasing power
2. Job losses
3. High prices due to tariffs.
4. Higher interest rates, so tough market conditions.
Fed should step in very soon to ease the market with interest rate reduction and then start stimulating the economy.
If Fed hands are tied for next few months and tariffs continue, it will be a biggest self inflicted economic tragedy in US and can be seen bad economic state out side of US.
Easy guess:
1. Tariffs are reduced and eventually removed on negotiations.
2. Fed will lower interest rates due to fear of deflationary recession, China is a biggest example.
3. Markets rally till end of the year.
4. Bull cycle comes to an end, starts the bear market in 2026 and 2027.
Hard guess:
1. Tariffs will move manufacturing companies away from US and adjust to the rest of the world.
2. US suffers lack of partners, hard to gain back trust.
3. Dollar will slowly move down.
Recessions and market crashes make millionaires, be always to grab an opportunity.
Happy investing
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.