WTI Crude just bounced hard off the $65 channel support, tagging resistance at $76 — and what happens next isn’t just about price. It’s about power.
Zoom into this chart:
We're sitting at a directional pivot with two possible outcomes:
1️⃣ If this was a truncated 5th wave, the structure is complete. Any further war escalation could be the catalyst for oil to break resistance — dragging down risk assets, including
BTC and equities.
2️⃣ If wave 5 isn’t done, we’ll likely see one more sharp leg down before oil launches. Either way, this is a high-stakes Elliott Wave setup with global macro consequences.
Chart with FIB Levels:
You'll see the wave I’ve marked (3) is messy, and on lower timeframes, that may hint at a truncated move worth watching.
Why this matters:
Over 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint controlled by Iran. If conflict escalates, that line gets squeezed… and oil price explodes.
Price to watch:
$76 resistance.
If oil breaks, the markets will react fast.
If it fails, we might get one more correction and maybe some relief from the sideways pain we’ve seen across risk assets.
Remember the COVID Crash?
Oil literally went below zero in April 2020. That wasn't just a chart anomaly, it was a global demand collapse. Traders were paying to get rid of oil because there was nowhere to store it. That moment marked a generational low, and what followed was a powerful multi-year 5 wave up.
Now look where we are:
That same COVID low helped form the base of the current Elliott Wave structure. The fact we’re back testing levels that once sparked global panic is no coincidence.
If you’ve been here before, you’ll see the signs. The charts always leave traces. And if this is the end of wave 5, it could be the start of a whole new macro move.
TLDR:
Stop trading headlines.
Trade the structure.
This chart is telling us everything.
Zoom into this chart:
We're sitting at a directional pivot with two possible outcomes:
1️⃣ If this was a truncated 5th wave, the structure is complete. Any further war escalation could be the catalyst for oil to break resistance — dragging down risk assets, including
BTC and equities.2️⃣ If wave 5 isn’t done, we’ll likely see one more sharp leg down before oil launches. Either way, this is a high-stakes Elliott Wave setup with global macro consequences.
Chart with FIB Levels:
You'll see the wave I’ve marked (3) is messy, and on lower timeframes, that may hint at a truncated move worth watching.
Why this matters:
Over 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint controlled by Iran. If conflict escalates, that line gets squeezed… and oil price explodes.
Price to watch:
$76 resistance.
If oil breaks, the markets will react fast.
If it fails, we might get one more correction and maybe some relief from the sideways pain we’ve seen across risk assets.
Remember the COVID Crash?
Oil literally went below zero in April 2020. That wasn't just a chart anomaly, it was a global demand collapse. Traders were paying to get rid of oil because there was nowhere to store it. That moment marked a generational low, and what followed was a powerful multi-year 5 wave up.
Now look where we are:
That same COVID low helped form the base of the current Elliott Wave structure. The fact we’re back testing levels that once sparked global panic is no coincidence.
If you’ve been here before, you’ll see the signs. The charts always leave traces. And if this is the end of wave 5, it could be the start of a whole new macro move.
TLDR:
Stop trading headlines.
Trade the structure.
This chart is telling us everything.
Trade active
Chart with FIB Levels:You'll see the wave I’ve marked (3) is messy — and on lower timeframes, that may hint at a truncated move worth watching.
Trade closed: target reached
WHY THERE MAY BE A CEASEFIRE VERY SOON THE OIL TRAP NO ONE WANTS TO SEE COMING
Everyone’s watching crude oil right now. The chart looks bullish. The headlines are full of ceasefire rumours. War premiums. Supply shocks. Bla bla bla.
But let me walk you through the part most people aren’t seeing.
Right now, we’re sitting under heavy resistance. $74 to $80 is the liquidity honey pot. Retail is buying breakout anticipation. Algos are stacking liquidity orders right above. Institutions are sharpening the knives.
The structure of this move? It’s corrective. See the red arrows...
This rally smells like a 4th wave trap inside a larger bearish Elliott Wave 5th.
The setup?
The first pullback comes. Everyone screams, “Healthy pullback, buy the dip!
Second leg hits. Now the media joins in. “Oil collapse incoming! Recession fears rise!
Panic selling triggers cascading stops. Capitulation wick.
If this plays out the way it's building, we could see oil wick down into $55… maybe even sub-$45… before we find the real macro bottom.
This is textbook market psychology.
When everyone agrees, reversals are born.
When everyone panics, bottoms are formed.
Elliott Wave isn’t just lines on a chart. It’s human behaviour on display.
Let them chase the headlines.
You study the structure.
❣️Lisa N Edwards❣️
TRADE MY SIGNALS
gettingstartedincrypto.com/
LISABOT.TRADE
TTMBOT.TRADE
thousandtomillions.com/
ALL MY LINKS linktr.ee/LisaNEdwards
TRADE MY SIGNALS
gettingstartedincrypto.com/
LISABOT.TRADE
TTMBOT.TRADE
thousandtomillions.com/
ALL MY LINKS linktr.ee/LisaNEdwards
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❣️Lisa N Edwards❣️
TRADE MY SIGNALS
gettingstartedincrypto.com/
LISABOT.TRADE
TTMBOT.TRADE
thousandtomillions.com/
ALL MY LINKS linktr.ee/LisaNEdwards
TRADE MY SIGNALS
gettingstartedincrypto.com/
LISABOT.TRADE
TTMBOT.TRADE
thousandtomillions.com/
ALL MY LINKS linktr.ee/LisaNEdwards
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.