Okta, Inc.Long
12/3/24 - $okta - Long print ~$80, setup B+
Updated
12/3/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: OKTA
Long print ~$80, setup B+
- if one thing is clear, it's that beats and misses are ultra-super-duper-did-i-mention-ultra magnified these past Q's and especially this 3Q reporting season
- the beats, however, are sending stuff ape'ing so if you can find decent setups, it probably pays to neck out a bit until the punch bowl gets taken away
- i have followedOKTA for a while and made a private comment (prior to opening up my writing) earlier this year. the math just didn't make a ton of sense to me then, SBC was still an issue, valuation was not obvious and it proved to be pretty spot on - the stock has effectively been dead money
- but given the beats we've seen from panw, zs (albeit stonks haven't really reacted - but valuation for these is in the stratosphere which is why i've just been in watch mode), okta presents an interesting case where if you look at google trends (as it's a consumer facing B2B)... they're squarely up and to the right. with all the russia russia russia, china china china rhetoric... identity mgmt remains a great "factor"
- while again, the SBC issue does rub me the wrong way, the stonk isn't broken, momentum is good and so i'm not going to count it against the valuation just yet which puts cash yield in the 5% range growing >10% which... with a unique biz is a good setup.
- again PE in high 20s... i think u can do better e.g. i love
TSM most of all tech-related names (i don't put 
NXT in that bucket, which is my largest single name and consider more "infra-energy"), but again... a beat, a raise, any positive speech could easily send this OKTA to fil it's sub $100 gap from last Q.
- i'm not wed to it tho, i'm borrowing some upside using Jan ITM calls, so any down move if it's -10-15% or w/e i can decide to reload, adjust etc and won't hurt the bank of V. but if it runs, it's probably a multi-day situation as we've seen with a lot of the recent beats esp given the current tape.
what do u think?
V
OKTALong print ~$80, setup B+
- if one thing is clear, it's that beats and misses are ultra-super-duper-did-i-mention-ultra magnified these past Q's and especially this 3Q reporting season
- the beats, however, are sending stuff ape'ing so if you can find decent setups, it probably pays to neck out a bit until the punch bowl gets taken away
- i have followed
OKTA for a while and made a private comment (prior to opening up my writing) earlier this year. the math just didn't make a ton of sense to me then, SBC was still an issue, valuation was not obvious and it proved to be pretty spot on - the stock has effectively been dead money- but given the beats we've seen from panw, zs (albeit stonks haven't really reacted - but valuation for these is in the stratosphere which is why i've just been in watch mode), okta presents an interesting case where if you look at google trends (as it's a consumer facing B2B)... they're squarely up and to the right. with all the russia russia russia, china china china rhetoric... identity mgmt remains a great "factor"
- while again, the SBC issue does rub me the wrong way, the stonk isn't broken, momentum is good and so i'm not going to count it against the valuation just yet which puts cash yield in the 5% range growing >10% which... with a unique biz is a good setup.
- again PE in high 20s... i think u can do better e.g. i love
TSM most of all tech-related names (i don't put NXT in that bucket, which is my largest single name and consider more "infra-energy"), but again... a beat, a raise, any positive speech could easily send this OKTA to fil it's sub $100 gap from last Q. - i'm not wed to it tho, i'm borrowing some upside using Jan ITM calls, so any down move if it's -10-15% or w/e i can decide to reload, adjust etc and won't hurt the bank of V. but if it runs, it's probably a multi-day situation as we've seen with a lot of the recent beats esp given the current tape.
what do u think?
V
Trade active
first time i listen to okta conf call and ceo (ideally also founder - which is the case here) is 1/ clear, 2/ visionary but also able to answer some 3/ tactile questions. i'd give Todd (McKinnon) an A+. will probably keep my ITM calls at this pt and let them convert. would like to own more of this company.
it's clear that there aren't any independent scaled/ neutral identity co's like Okta, many are bundled options which are "fine" but don't really solve identity. this is initially what drew me to
YOU, but obviously that played out and we made out and exited. but it wasn't really going to become an enterprise winner - more of a niche/ specific/ government play. obvious with it's own challenges.
wanted to make a comment to myself/ others who read this that I am big fan of Todd. A+. big factor in building LT positions in my book.
V
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.