Optimism another Matic in the making?
Updated
Optimism is one of those altcoins that I have been carefully watching for a while along with TWT that has recently broken out of a triangle. OP chart very much reminds me of Matic before breaking the triangle after almost 650 days of consolidation; so I decided to share my thoughts hoping we all make some money if it follows the footsteps of Matic.
- Usually when the coins are first released we see a strong move up or in some cases down(if the market decides price is too high at the time of ICO) followed by a period of consolidation. This consolidation sometimes forms a triangle that if broken will take off like a rocket.
- Major 1st wave together with 2nd wave followed by the minor 1st and 2nd waves of the major 3rd wave form a triangle that may take months if not years to complete. Take a look at XRP and Matic; It took XRP much longer to break out of the consolidation triangle while it took Matic roughly 650 days to take off. Recently TWT broke out after almost 650 days that is vey similar to Matic and will probably skyrocket.
- The following analysis is based on the assumption that OP mimics Matic.
- OP is about to break out of an already formed triangle (the green line and channel lower-line).
- At the time of publishing this idea OP has already consolidated for almost 200 days that if compared with Matic it seems we have to wait more even after breaking the already formed triangle
- Therefore I assume after breaking above the green line, OP has to deal with the red line to form a larger triangle before a major move to the upside.
- Unlike Matic that started with a strong move up, OP started with a strong move down after initial release; so the market decided the ATH price at the time of ICO is the end of major wave (I) .
- The orange rectangles are the targets derived from confluence zones of Fib-retracement and Fib-extension. Approximately the targets are $3.7, $21 and $70
- I can imagine the price action unfold according to the yellow path which depicts the 5 minor waves of the major 3rd wave.
- I am expecting OP to complete major 3rd wave by touching the channel upper-line twice.
- The channel is drawn in a way that its median line passes through top of the major wave (I); Similar to that of Matic where the median line passes through top of major wave (I) and its major 3rd wave touches top of the channel. The channel lower line is obviously based on price action.
- Usually when the coins are first released we see a strong move up or in some cases down(if the market decides price is too high at the time of ICO) followed by a period of consolidation. This consolidation sometimes forms a triangle that if broken will take off like a rocket.
- Major 1st wave together with 2nd wave followed by the minor 1st and 2nd waves of the major 3rd wave form a triangle that may take months if not years to complete. Take a look at XRP and Matic; It took XRP much longer to break out of the consolidation triangle while it took Matic roughly 650 days to take off. Recently TWT broke out after almost 650 days that is vey similar to Matic and will probably skyrocket.
- The following analysis is based on the assumption that OP mimics Matic.
- OP is about to break out of an already formed triangle (the green line and channel lower-line).
- At the time of publishing this idea OP has already consolidated for almost 200 days that if compared with Matic it seems we have to wait more even after breaking the already formed triangle
- Therefore I assume after breaking above the green line, OP has to deal with the red line to form a larger triangle before a major move to the upside.
- Unlike Matic that started with a strong move up, OP started with a strong move down after initial release; so the market decided the ATH price at the time of ICO is the end of major wave (I) .
- The orange rectangles are the targets derived from confluence zones of Fib-retracement and Fib-extension. Approximately the targets are $3.7, $21 and $70
- I can imagine the price action unfold according to the yellow path which depicts the 5 minor waves of the major 3rd wave.
- I am expecting OP to complete major 3rd wave by touching the channel upper-line twice.
- The channel is drawn in a way that its median line passes through top of the major wave (I); Similar to that of Matic where the median line passes through top of major wave (I) and its major 3rd wave touches top of the channel. The channel lower line is obviously based on price action.
Note
As I wrote back in December 2022, after breaking the green line which already happened, we have to deal with the red line to form a larger triangle and break above that to initiate a major move to the upside. I also mentioned that OP consolidated almost 200 days compared to 650 days for Matic. It seems as I expected OP is truly mimicking Matic and needed that 650 days of consolidation as if 200 days wasn't enough.
The previous analysis is still valid as we haven't really broken above that red line yet; it tried once but it failed.
We have already consolidated for 540 days and we probably need another couple month of consolidation.
The blue channel is no longer valid so we need to make some changes and we also need to extend the red line to the right to clearly see the large triangle I expected to form and it didn't disappoint.
The targets and wave count are still valid and don't forget that the longer it consolidates the higher it will go!
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