I took a short at the golden pocket, because sell pressure came in. This was shown by 30 min one time framing. The upside move and retest of the 0.5 fib normally looks bullish to me and in the past I would be only in long mode since 30 min otf from the 0.5 fib. In this case I wanted to actively counter trade the bulls from higher prices and the setup was given. So as mentioned before, the upside move with the claim of the pmPOC looks bullish, but while losing it to perform the bullish backtest, it becomes a bearish move aswell. The loss of the pmPOC (to perform the bullish retest) offers a failure to rotate scenario (FTR). In this case the liquidity at the origin of the move is the target. I have marked it on the chart as FTR draw at 10.343. Whenever the price claims a POC, it could continue a lot before it performs the retest. So ideally the retest would still happen above the POC (bullish case). Then bulls are a lot in favor, but we can often see the POC claim quickly followed by a loss, giving a 50 / 50 chance for bears and bulls, two setups at the same time. So why am I more bearish than bullish on this one? If you look at the freshest pwProfile, which is the only relevant for the current price action, then you can see that the price got rejected by the POC (reversion to the mean, then the auction process started again and bears stepped in) and then again the more local retest (where I took the short) happened from the low volume area of that profile. If bulls would be strong, then they would manage to get through the low volume area at least to the POC and ideally above. Well, they didn´t. That was another sign of weakness for me. So locally bears are in favor and if you check the 4 hr chart, below are some singleprints, fvg whatever you want to call it. That is interesting liquidity which isn´t given locally above. That´s another bearish factor here. Now let´s think about the previous month profile. The whole price action down here is rather below the POC than above. Yes an attempt with a claim of the POC could be bullish, but all the claims above where short lived indicating that it was only a liquidity hunt - not too bullish. It fell back below and spend here most of the time. That is accumulation below the POC which is also rather bearish. I have checked these liquidity hunts above and all of them rejected a low volume area of the pmProfile. It isn´t even the LVN (low volume node) of the profile. If bulls would be in control, they would easily slip through the low volume area and flip it to support. They didn´t multiple times. What do we have below? Singleprints offering interesting liquidity, the frontran pmVAL offering liquidity and below (check the 4 hr or daily chart) are singleprints aswell, offering liquidity once again. All these things are much more bearish than bullish so I decided to not stick to the potential bullish setup off the 0.5 fib. That´s why I have decided to take the short. First target is the FTR draw but the main target is the pmVAL to finish the bearish rotation. The bearish setup remains valid as long as bulls can not claim the pmPOC, hold it, form higher lows above locally as first signs of strength. That´s why the swing high at 13.110 is my invalidation. Btw: As mentioned before, the loss of the pmPOC (to perform the bullish retest) offers a FTR scenario. So does the pwProfile now because the price is unable to fully rotate it (obviously because of the rejection). Both profiles confirmed a FTR which is bearish.
If you want to receive signals or learn trading, this is the place for you:
discord.gg/KT8hWZ4pfP
discord.gg/KT8hWZ4pfP
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
If you want to receive signals or learn trading, this is the place for you:
discord.gg/KT8hWZ4pfP
discord.gg/KT8hWZ4pfP
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.