OTHERS/BTC Analysis - ALTcoin season
Updated
OTHERS/BTC Analysis
Forgot to take my schizophrenia meds today, and the voices tell me we are just around the timeframe for a breakout in the downward narrowing wedge for OTHERS/BTCUSD. Fibonacci timing suggests that we are within the timing band for a breakout in favor of OTHERS.
Following the 33.5° trend angle and the falling channel, we intercept Q4 2024, providing confluence with the 4-year cycle, and leading to a top in Q3 2024.
Historically, altcoin tops occur when the trend meets the 75% or 100% line. Ideally, we aim to long at the 0% bottom line, but since this was reached in summer 2023, a mini altcoin season began, peaking in March 2024. Afterward, we saw a cooldown and consolidation, bringing us back to the same starting point as summer 2023, around the 3.1M ratio.
While there is a chance we revisit the bottom of the channel before OTHERS outperforms BTC, the confluence of Q4 2024 and the 33.5° angle from this starting point favors outperformance beginning now at the 25% line.
Forgot to take my schizophrenia meds today, and the voices tell me we are just around the timeframe for a breakout in the downward narrowing wedge for OTHERS/BTCUSD. Fibonacci timing suggests that we are within the timing band for a breakout in favor of OTHERS.
Following the 33.5° trend angle and the falling channel, we intercept Q4 2024, providing confluence with the 4-year cycle, and leading to a top in Q3 2024.
Historically, altcoin tops occur when the trend meets the 75% or 100% line. Ideally, we aim to long at the 0% bottom line, but since this was reached in summer 2023, a mini altcoin season began, peaking in March 2024. Afterward, we saw a cooldown and consolidation, bringing us back to the same starting point as summer 2023, around the 3.1M ratio.
While there is a chance we revisit the bottom of the channel before OTHERS outperforms BTC, the confluence of Q4 2024 and the 33.5° angle from this starting point favors outperformance beginning now at the 25% line.
Trade active
Three days after I posted this, we indeed broke out of the falling wedge and confirmed the bullish breakout with a candle close above resistance. In the days that followed, we battled the important 200-day moving average (MA), which is highly influential in crypto. Currently, we are above this line, with the last four candles closing above it.
Right now, we are barely above the 50% dotted line of this channel. This suggests some consolidation as we work to confirm this line as support.
I plan to keep positions open and avoid over-trading, even if we experience a slight dip. My focus is on waiting for more significant sell signals after enjoying strong gains in December and January.
Happy days!
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