📊 Technical Overview
OXY has been in a prolonged downtrend, but recent price action is showing a potential structural reversal:
LL to HL / HH shift suggests the downtrend may be bottoming out.
Currently forming a Higher Low (HL) after printing two Higher Highs (HH) – a classic bullish market structure.
Key support held firm around the $34.80–35.00 zone, which aligns with a historically strong demand area.
Target range identified between $55.35–55.55, where previous consolidation occurred.
A sustained move above $45 could confirm a breakout from the current consolidation and open up room to the upside.
💡 Macro Tailwinds
Several economic and geopolitical factors may support a bullish case forOXY:
🔺 Oil Price Stability
WTI crude has been resilient above $70–75, with supply constraints and geopolitical tensions (e.g., Middle East & Russia sanctions) keeping a floor under oil prices.
If oil trends higher (seasonal summer demand + hurricane season), OXY’s revenue outlook improves.
🌍 Global Energy Demand
Global demand for fossil fuels remains elevated, particularly in emerging markets.
While ESG pressures remain, oil & gas continues to be critical in the transition phase.
💰 Warren Buffett Factor
Berkshire Hathaway continues to increase its stake in Occidental, signaling long-term conviction.
Buffett now owns over 28% of OXY, and the market often treats this as a strong vote of confidence.
🏦 Interest Rates & Fed Outlook
As inflation eases, markets are pricing in potential rate cuts in late 2025, which could support capital-intensive sectors like energy.
Lower rates also improve discounted cash flow models, increasing fair value estimates.
🧠 Sentiment & Valuation
OXY remains undervalued vs peers on a forward P/E and EV/EBITDA basis.
With strong free cash flow, OXY is aggressively paying down debt and buying back shares — supportive of long-term price appreciation.
RSI and MACD are neutral – plenty of room for momentum to build.
🎯 Trade Plan
Entry Zone: $42.50–43.50 (Current consolidation area)
Stop Loss: Below $38 (invalidates HL structure)
Target 1: $50
Target 2: $55.50
Target 3 (Stretch): $60+ if oil prices surge
⚠️ Risks
A break below $38 would invalidate the bullish structure.
Oil price weakness due to recession fears or unexpected OPEC policy shifts.
Broader market volatility (Fed, inflation, geopolitical shocks).
🔍 Bottom Line
OXY is showing early signs of a bullish reversal on the chart — supported by strong fundamentals, insider confidence (Buffett), and resilient oil prices. If this HL holds, the setup offers a solid risk-reward opportunity toward previous resistance levels.
OXY has been in a prolonged downtrend, but recent price action is showing a potential structural reversal:LL to HL / HH shift suggests the downtrend may be bottoming out.
Currently forming a Higher Low (HL) after printing two Higher Highs (HH) – a classic bullish market structure.
Key support held firm around the $34.80–35.00 zone, which aligns with a historically strong demand area.
Target range identified between $55.35–55.55, where previous consolidation occurred.
A sustained move above $45 could confirm a breakout from the current consolidation and open up room to the upside.
💡 Macro Tailwinds
Several economic and geopolitical factors may support a bullish case for
OXY:🔺 Oil Price Stability
WTI crude has been resilient above $70–75, with supply constraints and geopolitical tensions (e.g., Middle East & Russia sanctions) keeping a floor under oil prices.
If oil trends higher (seasonal summer demand + hurricane season), OXY’s revenue outlook improves.
🌍 Global Energy Demand
Global demand for fossil fuels remains elevated, particularly in emerging markets.
While ESG pressures remain, oil & gas continues to be critical in the transition phase.
💰 Warren Buffett Factor
Berkshire Hathaway continues to increase its stake in Occidental, signaling long-term conviction.
Buffett now owns over 28% of OXY, and the market often treats this as a strong vote of confidence.
🏦 Interest Rates & Fed Outlook
As inflation eases, markets are pricing in potential rate cuts in late 2025, which could support capital-intensive sectors like energy.
Lower rates also improve discounted cash flow models, increasing fair value estimates.
🧠 Sentiment & Valuation
OXY remains undervalued vs peers on a forward P/E and EV/EBITDA basis.
With strong free cash flow, OXY is aggressively paying down debt and buying back shares — supportive of long-term price appreciation.
RSI and MACD are neutral – plenty of room for momentum to build.
🎯 Trade Plan
Entry Zone: $42.50–43.50 (Current consolidation area)
Stop Loss: Below $38 (invalidates HL structure)
Target 1: $50
Target 2: $55.50
Target 3 (Stretch): $60+ if oil prices surge
⚠️ Risks
A break below $38 would invalidate the bullish structure.
Oil price weakness due to recession fears or unexpected OPEC policy shifts.
Broader market volatility (Fed, inflation, geopolitical shocks).
🔍 Bottom Line
OXY is showing early signs of a bullish reversal on the chart — supported by strong fundamentals, insider confidence (Buffett), and resilient oil prices. If this HL holds, the setup offers a solid risk-reward opportunity toward previous resistance levels.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.