Swing It Into A Potential Crash

Updated

In summary, if you are in (or considering buying) shares, this is Mid-term bearish. I would highly recommend against entering or adding shares here. You will likely have a better chance to exit/sell in the 330s around March 11-12th.

For those playing options, I can share my strategy - you'll have to be nimble to swing this for profits, but very do-able since I know the path it will take from here.

The smarter strategy is to wait until this confirms a higher low and then short it around March 12th-13th, But if you like making real money on weekly options with high risk here is what to do. Not Financial Advice.

To follow this chart, just pay attention to the thick black arrow - that is my forecast/path that price action will take. The thick red and green arrows align with the black arrow. Read below to see the exact levels and pivot dates I am looking for.

- PANW will likely pullback some more to 276-290 (-4% to -9% from current price: 302.40). This will happen fast - by March 5th End of Day (3/5/2024). So IF it doesn't gap down Monday, I'll be buying a few Mar 8 295 puts for ~3.40 and then looking to sell for over 7.00 Tuesday 3/5 before the close. But if it gaps down Monday 3/5 (which is possible), I'll be holding off on this swing and waiting for my chance to swing long. Hard stop loss will be a break above 306 at any point, if it breaks above 306 that is first near-term bullish signal, if it breaks above 315 it will confirm it has started next bullish leg.

- After the small pullback to expected range of 276-290, PANW will make its last bounce to around 327-338 (depending on where it bottoms in current down leg, this is a possible +16% to +22% bounce coming). Once I sell my Mar 8 puts on 3/5 before close, I will immediately buy Mar 15 300 calls - the premiums should be around 3.00-5.00 at this point but it will depend on where it bottoms exactly. The bounce will last through 3/11-3/12, so I will be looking to sell half my calls at 327 (for at least 27.00) and then sell the other half around 338 (for at least 38.00)

*** After this bounce to 327-338, the real downside will begin. I will send an update with my precise target when we see how this plays out and at what levels it bottoms and tops in this path/forecast, but my estimate target is 210-240 by end of March to Early April (Potential for a 100 point drop!!). I'll be going big on April 19 puts when this bounces to the 327-338 range.

Stay tuned for updates along the way.

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Selling puts for successful part 1 - big time profits.

Not swinging directly into calls just yet, looking for confirmation, i'll update when its ready.

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Started legging in to PANW Mar 15 300 calls for 3.65.

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Calls already up 13%

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Very rarely do I average up, but I'm adding Mar 15 300 calls for 4.25 (average price = 3.95). The'll sell for a whole lot more.

#NancyPelosiWantsThis

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Calls already up over 30% from initial purchase, up 20% from average price... last chance to add/enter for a discount.

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wow, life is good.

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Averaged down on March 15 300 calls at 2.12. Average cost is now 3.34. I'm over 30k deep here so I'm dead serious - this will be trading at 310-320 minimum by expiration, potentially 327-338.

Not selling until these calls are at least 10.00.

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CPI will be a catalyst this week for bullish continuation in the market. I am still bullish on PANW near-term with targets 310, 327, 338 (higher probability of hitting 310-327, lower probability of hitting 338+).

With CPI as a catalyst and due to specific setup for PANW, it is possible it will hit 310-327 by 3/15 expiration, however, I will be rolling my 300.00 strike calls to Mar 22 expiration to give it sufficient time to bounce.

Great opportunity to add calls tomorrow morning.

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To answer some of the common comments I'm seeing:

This is a 3-trade idea, as detailed in my original post.

- first we did a near-term short that payed out

- Now for part 2 we are playing near term bounce with plenty of time still (and my update/recommendation to roll out a week).. The reason "everyone is in this trade" is because part 1 worked out so nicely - as will part 2! Have faith

-Part 3 will be to short this to the ground once the bounce completes. Keep that in mind.

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looking for a small pullback here to around 281 by end of day for a chance to roll the Mar 15 300 calls to Mar 22. If we get that pullback I will also enter Mar 28 305 calls for under 2.80.

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I rolled my Mar 15 300 calls to Mar 22 for 1.81 (cost of the Mar 22s is 2.56).

I also bought Mar 28 305 calls for 2.80

And I picked up a couple Mar 15 290 calls for 2.36.

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I love the setup here, it's ready to gap 286.22 tomorrow and run from there toward 300s.

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As a supplement play to my PANW long, I am going to enter QLYS Apr 19 185 calls for around 3.30 today. QLYS is a cyber name with nice chart setup that indicates a more sustained rally coming.

PANW is more of a quick play/swing, but for those looking for a more sustained move with cheaper premiums at farther out expiration, QLYS is where its at.

Here's my idea for QLYS:

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If you're looking for another near-term (high reward/high risk) swing play in a different sector, check out my newest post - long MDB:

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Shorts will begin to cover on the next break above 286. Float at 4.44%, 14milli shares.

#NancyPelosiWantsThis

#NacncyPelosiIsYourDad

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Check out these 20k buy orders coming in all of a sudden..

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Sold my Mar 15 290 calls for 3.93 (+67% return after only holding 2 trading days from entry).

Not selling my Mar 22 and Mar 28 calls until we get to 310+.

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Check out my latest idea for the best short squeeze play currently - BOWL (90% float and breaking out):

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Very interesting fractal forming here:

- look at PANW chart on the 1H timeframe from Dec 2023 to current
- then compare that to the 5 minute tf from 3/13 to current

A breakout on the 5m tf will give us insight on how the rest of this bounce at the 1H tf will playout; A breakdown on the 5m tf will be a warning sign

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Added Mar 22 300 calls for 1.58.

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Just need a break above 285 and it will run to 297. If it breaks 297 it will continue to 310-320 (minimum).

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We have until 1pm to accumulate as many calls as possible before whole market takes off.

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2 possibilities from here:

1) One man's rare miss is another man's downfall - any play I recommend, especially options, has a cost basis that is a negligible % of my entire portfolio (and cash).

2) I simply did not give this enough time. I posted an update that I have calls expiring Mar 28, but lets make one more add and pay up for a better risk/reward scenario:

Entering Apr 12 290.00 calls for 5.70.

If you lost on the initial play and don't want to add here fair enough, but when these print your initial losses will be avenged 7fold

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Here's a fresh play, makeup call if you will:

NVDA is ripe

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Apr calls from this morning already up 10%

NVDA calls from the linked idea this morning already up 24%

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This is finally ready to break out here - fasten your seatbelts.

Added Apr 5 305 calls for 1.65

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Calls are already 2.68 (up 68% in less than an hour).

A lot of people still stuck on the first round of calls. Trading is continuous if you catch my updates and play them in time you'll make money over 80% of the time.

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And the original Mar 22 300s will probably still hit. I don't think most people are prepared for how insane this move is about to be. It just finished some of the heaviest accumulation I've seen since back in Jan when it broke out from same level.

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Took profit on the Apr 5 305 calls for 2.86

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73% return in 2 days holding.

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Re-entering long here. Bought Mar 28 285 calls for 6.90. Using tight stop loss of 285 underlying

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Last chance to add Apr 5 and Apr 12 calls for a discount. I added PANW and MDB calls, tomo 3/28 is the catalyst.. you'll see.

Also entered MSFT calls

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I've taken some considerable losses on PANW due to underestimating the extent of this re-accumulation phase. Still confident the move will be major, with upside potential to the mid-350s.

The market is working out a corrective wave before making a significant rally in the coming weeks, but I think there could be one last pullback going into early next week before its ready.

As for PANW I need to re-analyze this over the weekend and see if its worth staying with or if there are better plays. I'm not shorting this or the market yet, there will be a time for that in the coming months. I need some additional confirmations though before I go long again.

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this is about to go through the roof, but I'm no longer in a PANW position (nor am I entering one). Rather, I'm playing ANET, here my latest:

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I feel like I owe you all this... Refer to my updated idea (Swing into a potential crash - pt. 2) going forward:

JerryManders

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