What an amazing and clean chart this stock has got. Few perspective -
Stock Price Momentum:
The stock is trading above its 5, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, showing strong upward momentum.
Volume & Performance:
Past 1 month: +26.58%. Past 1 year: +125%–137%.
Outperforming the Sensex, especially in 2025.
Breakouts:
Currently consolidating between ₹190–₹205. Technical breakout above ₹205 could move it towards ₹296 in 3 months, if broader market conditions support and volumes confirm the move.
Volatility:
3.7x as volatile as Nifty, indicating high risk and high reward.
Position in Sector:
Outperformance within a strong fertilizer theme.
Business Model:
Second-largest private phosphatic fertilizer company in India, with a broad manufacturing and distribution presence.
Return Metrics:
ROCE: 13.9% | ROE: 14.4% (but 3-year average only 9.6%).
Growth:
3-year compounded sales growth: 21%.
3-year compounded profit growth: 11%.
TTM profit growth: 376% (driven by recent performance rebound).
Profitability:
Net Profit Margin (TTM): 3.99% | Gross Margin: ~26%.
Balance Sheet:
Debt/Equity: 106.5%—relatively high, though not uncommon in asset-heavy fertilizer industry.
Valuation:
PE is above market average, indicating some overvaluation vs. long-term average.
PB ratio significantly above book, dividend yield still modest.
Risks:
High volatility, cyclical earnings potential.
Returns on equity are improving but still modest for long-term holding expectations (Buffett style).
Institutional ownership and low insider ownership suggest broad investor interest, but not heavy inside conviction.
Momentum/Technical:
Value/Long-Term:
No investment is risk-free—conduct your own due diligence and consider your own risk appetite before making a move.
Stock Price Momentum:
The stock is trading above its 5, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, showing strong upward momentum.
Volume & Performance:
Past 1 month: +26.58%. Past 1 year: +125%–137%.
Outperforming the Sensex, especially in 2025.
Breakouts:
Currently consolidating between ₹190–₹205. Technical breakout above ₹205 could move it towards ₹296 in 3 months, if broader market conditions support and volumes confirm the move.
Volatility:
3.7x as volatile as Nifty, indicating high risk and high reward.
Position in Sector:
Outperformance within a strong fertilizer theme.
Business Model:
Second-largest private phosphatic fertilizer company in India, with a broad manufacturing and distribution presence.
Return Metrics:
ROCE: 13.9% | ROE: 14.4% (but 3-year average only 9.6%).
Growth:
3-year compounded sales growth: 21%.
3-year compounded profit growth: 11%.
TTM profit growth: 376% (driven by recent performance rebound).
Profitability:
Net Profit Margin (TTM): 3.99% | Gross Margin: ~26%.
Balance Sheet:
Debt/Equity: 106.5%—relatively high, though not uncommon in asset-heavy fertilizer industry.
Valuation:
PE is above market average, indicating some overvaluation vs. long-term average.
PB ratio significantly above book, dividend yield still modest.
Risks:
High volatility, cyclical earnings potential.
Returns on equity are improving but still modest for long-term holding expectations (Buffett style).
Institutional ownership and low insider ownership suggest broad investor interest, but not heavy inside conviction.
Momentum/Technical:
- Positive: Strong technical momentum, recent breakouts, all moving averages showing uptrend.
- Actionable: Watch for breakout above ₹205 with volume, as it may target ₹296 in 3 months.
- Note: As a trend/momentum investor, position sizing and risk management are crucial due to elevated volatility and the stock’s sharp run-up.
Value/Long-Term:
- Positive: Largest domestic fertilizer player, steady profit growth, improving operating margins, scale in an essential industry.
- Cautious: Valuation is somewhat elevated (high PE & PB). Margins (ROE/ROCE) are decent but not exceptional. High debt and sector cyclicality are notable risks. Dividend yield is low.
- Actionable: "Buy only at a fair price"—the current valuation seems a bit rich relative to its book and historical earnings multiples. Consider accumulating on dips, or if you have a very long-term horizon and conviction on sectoral tailwinds.
No investment is risk-free—conduct your own due diligence and consider your own risk appetite before making a move.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.