Long PCT @5.475 before the close today
Updated
This one can be a real roller coaster. My first trade in the last 12 months is still being held and down 48% and I have 7 open lots that are all down at least 28%. However, I have also closed 3 trades in PCT in that time that gained between 48% and 51% and 5 total closed trades over 40% in the last 12 months. In all, 26 of the 33 trades so far were profitable.
INCLUDING the 7 currently held losers, the average return of all 33 trades in the last 12 months is +5.1% and the median trade is also at 5.1%.
It is resting right above its 50d SMA and has rejected significant breaks through the 50d twice in the last two days, closing above it both times. It also had 5 consecutive down days before today and today it rallied to close flat with yesterday or it would have been 6. All of those are good news IMO.
It had a 10 consecutive down day streak to open the year, but then rallied over 100% in the next 2 months. At the end of that it tanked 12% in one day, only to have reclaimed all of that and then some over the next 11 trading days. Then it lost 30+% in a month and then gained almost 50% in the next 2 months. So like I said, make sure the safety harness is in the locked position and have the oxygen mask ready as it could be a very wild ride.
A 5% rally from here (the average trade result) just gets it back to its 5d SMA so it feels like this one COULD be a >5% rebound to overbought. Will sell all lots that are profitable once it becomes overbought.
Full disclosure, a recent news release about focusing on upgrades to their systems is, IMO, telegraphing a weak earnings report, and I suspect why the stock is oversold.
TBH this one doesn't feel as much like a lock as my previous trades did, but the potential significant upside on this makes it attractive. It could be a nothing burger or even a loss, given that the stock itself is down 50% or so in 12 months. But it has been trending upward for the last few months, so I'm willing to take a shot here.
INCLUDING the 7 currently held losers, the average return of all 33 trades in the last 12 months is +5.1% and the median trade is also at 5.1%.
It is resting right above its 50d SMA and has rejected significant breaks through the 50d twice in the last two days, closing above it both times. It also had 5 consecutive down days before today and today it rallied to close flat with yesterday or it would have been 6. All of those are good news IMO.
It had a 10 consecutive down day streak to open the year, but then rallied over 100% in the next 2 months. At the end of that it tanked 12% in one day, only to have reclaimed all of that and then some over the next 11 trading days. Then it lost 30+% in a month and then gained almost 50% in the next 2 months. So like I said, make sure the safety harness is in the locked position and have the oxygen mask ready as it could be a very wild ride.
A 5% rally from here (the average trade result) just gets it back to its 5d SMA so it feels like this one COULD be a >5% rebound to overbought. Will sell all lots that are profitable once it becomes overbought.
Full disclosure, a recent news release about focusing on upgrades to their systems is, IMO, telegraphing a weak earnings report, and I suspect why the stock is oversold.
TBH this one doesn't feel as much like a lock as my previous trades did, but the potential significant upside on this makes it attractive. It could be a nothing burger or even a loss, given that the stock itself is down 50% or so in 12 months. But it has been trending upward for the last few months, so I'm willing to take a shot here.
Note
Still oversold. Added another lot @5.285 just before the close.Note
Forgot to update yesterday. Still oversold. Added another lot @5.17 at the close.Note
Just closed entire position at 5.7537I'll update the performance results after the close
Note
Closed position dataLot 1: +5.1% in 6 trading days
Lot 2: +8.9% in 5 trading days
Lot 3: +11.3% in 3 trading days
29-7 overall now
Avg gain = 6.7% (includes 7 lots that are down since opening them)
Median gain = 8.3%
Total 12M gain (including current losers) = 2.41x lot size
Note
For the record, as of now it would be 36-0 after the monster run in PCT last week.Note
Trade results summary
Wins 3 Losses 0
+5.1% in 6 days
+8.9% in 5 days
+11.3% in 3 days
Avg return = +8.4%
Avg hold = 4.7 days
Per lot per day held annualized return = +454%
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