9/3/24 - $pd - 5 bps on C's. R/R justifies.
9/3/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
PD
5 bps on C's. R/R justifies.
- great mgn, growing (albeit MSD best), seems to be an interesting position in mkt of hardware-software-IOT-stuffs
- low 3's EV/sales seems like par for the low growth stuff these days
- cathie-owned keeps me lol'ing why i mess with her bags
- but short interest is sky high. today's -4% move is actually holding up better than alot of similar names, and the action into the print seems to have established $18 as possibly a valuation line. hard to tell.
- for the reason of today's move + high short interest ... i'm taking a punt only in Oct C's to play the reversion higher and possibility of good speech. admittedly i think the risk to the downside is DOWN, HOWEVER, in the event they do beat, the MAGNITUDE of the upside outweighs this risk. so my 5 bps i think is 60-70% a zero (or half given they're Oct calls, depending on how bad ha!) and 30-40% a 3-4x which is a marginal +ve expected result.
- so keeping it small. this one's been on my radar for a long time. i'm biased to want to own it. i've privately written that "in the 15's makes sense" so let's see what results bring and perhaps i'll dip buy an outsized down move. this allows me to put foot in pool intelligently without losing my shirt.
- as you guys know i was v cashy last week. i've deployed a touch on gdlc, more nxt, more celh and added blde and a few others into the mix. be safe out there. the headline nasdaq doesn't tell the picture that individual stonks do - most of which are WAY further off their highs than the index would suggest is the case for the normie stonk.
leave any comments if you know thisPD and case. appreciate you all
V
PD5 bps on C's. R/R justifies.
- great mgn, growing (albeit MSD best), seems to be an interesting position in mkt of hardware-software-IOT-stuffs
- low 3's EV/sales seems like par for the low growth stuff these days
- cathie-owned keeps me lol'ing why i mess with her bags
- but short interest is sky high. today's -4% move is actually holding up better than alot of similar names, and the action into the print seems to have established $18 as possibly a valuation line. hard to tell.
- for the reason of today's move + high short interest ... i'm taking a punt only in Oct C's to play the reversion higher and possibility of good speech. admittedly i think the risk to the downside is DOWN, HOWEVER, in the event they do beat, the MAGNITUDE of the upside outweighs this risk. so my 5 bps i think is 60-70% a zero (or half given they're Oct calls, depending on how bad ha!) and 30-40% a 3-4x which is a marginal +ve expected result.
- so keeping it small. this one's been on my radar for a long time. i'm biased to want to own it. i've privately written that "in the 15's makes sense" so let's see what results bring and perhaps i'll dip buy an outsized down move. this allows me to put foot in pool intelligently without losing my shirt.
- as you guys know i was v cashy last week. i've deployed a touch on gdlc, more nxt, more celh and added blde and a few others into the mix. be safe out there. the headline nasdaq doesn't tell the picture that individual stonks do - most of which are WAY further off their highs than the index would suggest is the case for the normie stonk.
leave any comments if you know this
PD and case. appreciate you allV
Note
seems like they're getting v little lift off on their SG&A spend
tough to spend more time digging in to these smid cap software names than just MSD+ growth and as it stand the mkt seems to want to sell anything that's not absolutely crushing it. C's was the right move to limit exposure. let's see if i can salvage 25% of the cost, but it won't be crushing.
moving on. not sure i'll return to this unless it breaks single digits at this pt or until we get to the next EPS. so many other names and EPS to play in the meanwhile. onward and upward
V
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