Long

Updated

Capturing PEPEUSDT volatility

I like a bounce off the weekly support @ 0.00000167 and have accumulated at this price.

1% of capital position. Target is a modest 4% close @ 0.00000174.

Short term I see Bitcoin retesting 27.3, or another bounce off 26.6.

Open buys on PEPEUSDT are set lower in case Bitcoin breaks down at 26.6 and heads to 25.9 or high 25's. If Bitcoin heads to high 25's I will reassess.

Trade active

Closed 167-174 levels initial trade +4.02% net

163 filled overnight, so trade is still active.

Trade active

167 remains a key S/R

Added optimistic order at 164

Working on a sell level now

Trade active

Sell target: 0.00000170

Short term trend analysis:

We are really in sync with Bitcoin's movements. But on a relative basis PEPE is weaker.

I think it stays under Bitcoin's watermark for the next 24h.

There is a lot of overhead daily trend resistance now.

Getting through now multiple daily overhead resistance of 169, 170 would be very bullish and let the frog breath in open air all the way to 186:

But this is too optimistic IMO, due to relative weakness to Bitcoin and the overhead resistance I think in the short term bouncing down from 170 is much more likely than testing 186. For 186 fills, my guess is that Bitcoin would need to pump to 28k resistance.

The volatility of this project has been excellent to trade. But it has lessened and in the short term is losing the market's focus. If it continues to lose the market's focus, it can rapidly drop to test levels outlined in the top post, 139, lower.

As such I'm very cautious with profit levels. I'm happy to cycle in and out to take small percentages.

Trade active

162 buy order filled
158 buy order filled

averaging down now. new buys set at levels of support at 149 and 140

Note

New knife catch buy orders set at 122 and 107 - this could get ugly, you need good capital management here, position sizing especially. You always want dry powder. I'm keeping my average price close to the price action for now.

A sizeable risk off rotation is occurring in markets at time of writing.

DXY spiking up. Nasdaq futures spike down. Oil and gold breaking down.

And most importantly for PEPEUSDT, Bitcoin's next strong support level is at 25.9. The low buy orders mentioned above are there in case of that scenario.

Looks like 157 level has caught price action for now. Updates to follow.

Note

Correction, next Bitcoin supports are at 26.6. We should get a bounce off there, unless afore mentioned macro factors continue spiking.

China closing, London opening, could stay spicy

Note

Bitcoin levels I'm watching

Note

Current buys are set at

0.00000150
0.00000140
0.00000122
0.00000107

My avg px is 161

Trade active

100% sell order set at 0.00000167. Buys are still open. That 167 weekly support has been a FROG MAGNET.

The 2% shocker dip on the HANGSENG close on bad economic data is probably what is causing risk off. We'll see what happens overnight in the Europe markets. Lots of support beneath BTC and PEPE for now. I think this is just standard volatility playing out, nothing major.

Trade active

150 level filled.

AVG PX Is now 158

Sell target still active at 167 (+5.3%)

This is why looking at price levers like Bitcoin (which bounced off my 26.6 level) and the broader markets were important. Things were bearish at Asia close and Europe open but not catastrophic. Nasdaq and oil pumped during the US session. DXY hit resistance. Just 'normal' market volatility here.

Trade active

Watching this trade for the next 8 hours at least. Moved buy levels up to 156 and 150.

Will likely shift sell target down, 167 looking too optimistic for next 24h, we'll see.

Note

156 filled

Note

AVG PX is now 157

Sell target revised down to 160.

Reason is I don't think we see Bitcoin blast through its resistance at 27.6, so it limits PEPE upside here and I think PEPE will continue to lose the market's focus this week.

Note

CTKS 8 chart Macro overview update

Looks like some short term sideways chop with regards to risk on/off sentiment. Should be enough to get us across the line at 160 target.

Trade active

Bitcoin breaks key level, PEPE breaks down.

PEPE does not like the rejection unfolding at BTC 27.3

Note

Buys are at 151 and 148

If BTC keeps rejecting at 27.3 and heads back down to the next key level at 26.6, I think 148 will fill ezpz.

Further BTC break downs to 25.9 would be nice for even cheaper long fills, assuming this is just regular volatility, which I think it is, for now, based on the broader market conditions at time of writing.

Note

151 filled. AVG PX 156. IMO a BTC bounce back to retest 27.3 is needed for target to hit.

Or, looks like PEPE wants to go much lower if BTC goes to next strong support at 26.6

Night approaches here, so will assess in a few hours what lower levels to potentially catch falling knives.

Note

Sell target @ 0.00000160 reached, 100% fill. +2.5% net

Overall pleased with the trade. It's not easy to get wins on alts that are under heavy selling pressure, especially ones that show recent relative weakness to Bitcoin. The market's focus as measured by liquidations does seem to be shifting away from PEPE but I'll keep an eye on it either way.

dreamalittle

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dreamalittle

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