Pharma Patent Law Party Time!! $PHRRF
Updated
So here's my guess for the next short term bout of fun and awesome small cap volatility! Seriously though, I like how this company operates so far. Protective patents have been filed, they've already set up plenty of partnerships to get clinical trials rolling, and the blue-sky potential here is pretty staggering. No, really, it's suspiciously good. I'm obviously kinda dumb though, so it could just be a "stuck in my own thrall" kinda situation.
Ok for starters, I'll admit that I don't care about the patent stuff. I'll explain why: I'm confident that the microneedle patch is protective enough that the whole issue of 'method of treatment' patents is negligible. But everyone is going to see "Clinical Trials for Big Disease! Big Yes!" Then they see it's for a generic drug and are all, "well that isn't how you print money!" and they scurry back into their dark abyss. Ok, so say it with me: "proprietary patch is patent protected."
Don't worry, I'm totally gonna forget, too!
But even aside from that, there is a (relatively-recent!) precedent set for patent protections in regards to "Methods of Treatment." It's a whole 'thing' that I'm not qualified to talk about, but I'm doing my own due diligence. Without looking though, I can say that a court case settled in 2018 is new by law standards, and new laws are frequently subject to challenges. For this reason, I'm gonna go ahead and anticipate a (temporary, brief) further drop in share price until everyone brushes up on the relevant patent cases.
When everyone's homework gets turned in, I'm thinking we'll see 0.45USD.
Idk, I really like when projected patterns line up with good fundamental markers- bonus points for ending on or near pretty, round numbers. I've gotta admit though, it's definitely feels like a stupid way to think, so it's probably dangerous to share the notion. Caveat stultus and all that.
Regardless, the company still has a ridiculously small market cap when compared to other equivalent players in the psychedelic pharmaceutical space. Yeah, even after the recent gains. (To be fair, it could just mean that everyone else has much more room to fall.)
Anyway! Let me know if I need to stop! :)
Ok for starters, I'll admit that I don't care about the patent stuff. I'll explain why: I'm confident that the microneedle patch is protective enough that the whole issue of 'method of treatment' patents is negligible. But everyone is going to see "Clinical Trials for Big Disease! Big Yes!" Then they see it's for a generic drug and are all, "well that isn't how you print money!" and they scurry back into their dark abyss. Ok, so say it with me: "proprietary patch is patent protected."
Don't worry, I'm totally gonna forget, too!
But even aside from that, there is a (relatively-recent!) precedent set for patent protections in regards to "Methods of Treatment." It's a whole 'thing' that I'm not qualified to talk about, but I'm doing my own due diligence. Without looking though, I can say that a court case settled in 2018 is new by law standards, and new laws are frequently subject to challenges. For this reason, I'm gonna go ahead and anticipate a (temporary, brief) further drop in share price until everyone brushes up on the relevant patent cases.
When everyone's homework gets turned in, I'm thinking we'll see 0.45USD.
Idk, I really like when projected patterns line up with good fundamental markers- bonus points for ending on or near pretty, round numbers. I've gotta admit though, it's definitely feels like a stupid way to think, so it's probably dangerous to share the notion. Caveat stultus and all that.
Regardless, the company still has a ridiculously small market cap when compared to other equivalent players in the psychedelic pharmaceutical space. Yeah, even after the recent gains. (To be fair, it could just mean that everyone else has much more room to fall.)
Anyway! Let me know if I need to stop! :)
Note
Oh hey! Yeah, so I guess that was about right then? I don't know what I'm doing! I shouldn't even be saying anything!!Everyone should bear in mind that we're talking about "Pre-Phase II Clinical Trial," and not "imminent rocketship." There's no guarantee that they'll find good results upon completion of Phase II- and even if (further along) the results are exceptional, there's no guarantee that the market will even care. With that out of the way, it should be noted that the company already has ample, legitimate clinical partnerships at a multitude of sites- for each arm of research in the pipeline. I get the feeling that timeliness won't be much of an issue going forward.
In fact, guys- you might need to slow down. I get the notion that the hesitance I'm seeing in the market is due to the speed at which the company appears to be progressing. Although I won't discount that it could just be a solid, pre-conceived playbook. Optimism tends to elude me, however, so that is never my initial assumption.
Idk though, I was having a discussion with a PD patient about ways to maximize relief with marijuana the other day, and I thought it was worth mentioning the ketamine research conducted at the University of Arizona. From what I gather, this person was already interested in exploring it as an off-label treatment option. When it comes time to enroll patients for the studies, I feel like they'll get a good idea of what the patient demand looks like. I'm guessing bigly big, but I'm ignorant. "Who cares about patients, anyway?"
I mean- seriously though. The data for ketamine looks very promising in the short term. We can all have the discussion about better treatments in the future, but this appears to be a very fast and effective solution to a widespread problem now.
The future stuff is covered by the proprietary MN patch and novel delivery system. It's developed by a biotechnology company specializing in organ transplantation, so... Kinda ameliorates any worries I would have about issues with epithelial rejection. Idk, there's more to it than that (like the design of the reservoir & the rest of the delivery system), but the glory of the whole thing is that a good chunk of this stuff is public information. All seems pretty legit to me, Idk.
(I am not an advisor and I don't know what I'm doing! (Although fortunately, I don't think anyone actually reads this, so the warning has been successfully heeded. Great job everyone!))
Note
When I first looked up MediSynergics, my heart dropped.It's a scam!
Except no, it isn't- it's just a very old website designed by.. Jeez, I'm guessing one of the chemists- and probably back in like 1998. I think it's legitimate- there's no way those detailed descriptions of lab credentials is fake. I mean wow. Like... A scam website would try a little harder to look real.
I went ahead and showed it to Stack, who got inappropriately excited about the future prospects. Stack is a person who hates businesses and business practices- I was surprised. Loves science shit though, so maybe I could have guessed. Whatever.
"But look at all their equipment! You know that means they can synthesize the chemicals themselves!"
I guess that would potentially circumvent any potential supply issues- which isn't something I was expecting to see for Phase II, but yeah, I figure they'll need synthesis in order to run any number of Phase III's concurrently. Just sayin' because of a minor shortage of ketamine. It was a going concern. I checked... There's an FDA resource for it? I'm not sure how accurate it is. Regardless, it could just be a patent protection thing. Who knows? I don't know! I'm ignorant.
I understand the hesitance in the interim.
Note
Yeah. Some of that previous update definitely shows my ignorance shining through in a very glorious fashion- I doubt there's "mass production" capacity at the lab. Here's the thing though- they don't make it particularly easy to research industrial-scale production of controlled substances!Ah! Well that would make sense!
I don't know, I'm definitely just guessing; there might not even be an issue with supply. I'm guessing it'll definitely help with the regulatory process to have a lab based in the US run some of the research. It somehow seems important, but I haven't looked into the international regulations that pertain to FDA drug approval. They might not exist! I see ghosts!
Anyway. Can't say I'm particularly worried for the long term yet- everything so far appears to be moving according to a specific plan. I can't imagine how else this could have come together as fast as it has. Suspiciously good, but I haven't found a real flaw yet.
Oh wait! There is one! I know one
Note
What the fuck is that? Is there an aggregator that reposted my stuff without my fun and awesome nonsense attached? I guess the comments are all here. Hi! If you're reading this, you should stop! I'm almost not joking- I'm a non-Socratic fool.But I was poking around today and figured I'd see what my next moonshot was looking like- whaaaaAAat! I love nice, rounded numbers- especially when they coincidentally line up! Here's what I mean: a move to .43USD would put the company's market capitalization at roughly 30mm- Like, so close to $30 million that it looks funny. That's also a 75.5% increase, which is LOFTY but not something that I'd consider to be wholly impossible. I'm going to call it "The Theory of Sexy Numbers."
The sector at large will likely acknowledge the recent FUD surrounding MindMed's insider trading, and I'd expect inflows to companies making actionable moves in the psychedelic sector. While that might bring more attention to PharmaTher, my unprofessional ass is predicting that the growth sector will end up floundering over the next couple of weeks. I should note, however, that it'll only be a short time for the company to get going on its next milestone, so I can't say I'm too worried about the interim.
Oh uhhhh and I guess it broke my predicted uptrend as of right now! I'm assuming that's pretty common for meteoric rises. Price action like that is going to draw in opportunists who play with fire, but it's important to note that a decent chunk of that volume could intend to hold through the development of clinical trials. For what it's worth, I averaged up.
Note
Whoops! First big miss.An important note: a move to $0.45 would lead to a market cap of approximately 40 million USD. This would be enough to meet the requirements to be included in a few different ETFs, assuming that the trading volume remains consistently high in the interim... So a move to .43 will potentially catalyze further gains at an accelerated rate- assuming that the ETF portfolio managers see what I'm seeing. At the moment, I don't believe that PharmaTher is held in any psychedelic ETFs- and it's important to note that at the moment there are only, like, three.
It's important to note that this range will probably also bring out some aggressive short positions, so it'll be interesting to see how the following months play out. In the meantime, savvy investors can keep track of the status of clinical trials by visiting clinicaltrials.gov and inputting the appropriate search terms.
Remember: I'm not an expert, so my advice is best kept to myself.
Note
Eh, I'm not making a new chart until things normalize a bit.Lookin' good though! I'll be paying attention to the current clinical trial progress- in my opinion, everything above .46 USD is speculative. I'm also watching for the inevitable inclusion into one or more ETFs in the near future. The fact is that there are a lot of catalysts still lined up to bring more attention here.
I definitely had to realize some profit, but I'm going to be guarding my remaining core position like a dragon.
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