1/15/25 - $pi - Bot $135 today, looking to add in low $100s

1/15/25 :: VROCKSTAR ::
Bot $135 today, looking to add in low 100s

- been on my watchlist since doing a deep dive on IOT stuffs middle of last year, was just "too" expensive.
- let's be real, >30x EBITDA is still expensive
- but the 20% CAGR looks to be one of these growth rates in an infancy-industry RFID-related chips/ IP... that is at the BEGINNING of the S-curve, this is NOT a mature technology by any stretch.
- these guys are leaders
- seasonal commentary by mgmt today are spooking numbers on an otherwise strong tech day when we were adding y day into the print tmr am - so that's a highlight
- but i'm starting to take further risk off the table and make sure i'm going to catch all the future trends, and IOT is one (i like as well - have traded in/out - looking to re-enter)
- doing more work... really liked the comment by a X user late last year that i'm copying below to add into the research mosaic - thanks to this fella

x.com/RadnorCapital/status/1867259731766649196

going slow it's a ITM call dec 19 2025... $100 strike that allows me to grab some exposure and do more work without truly necking out and in some sense *hoping* it goes lower in the coming weeks so i can grow size.

as you guys know - i like to form positions where i'm *indifferent* whether stock goes up or down given risk mgmt/ sizing considerations. for now, i don't think stock is an obvious buy

the reason i write and added is b/c it's a take-profit from some recent wins (uber, nxt, tsm come to mind - more to come!)... and want to rotate a bit/ explore other leaders and not get too greedy on these entries. still learning the heartbeat of these names tho, so again, slow and risk managed entry.

hope u guys r all having a good week

anyone that has a more nuanced opinion here or other links to explore the case... appreciated.

V

Trade active

have done some more work on this name over the weekend and CEO (and co-founder) Chris Diorio is the real deal. i have an EXTREMELY high bar for mgmt teams. and among the few names where i can say this with confidence (in my book), like (almost obviously), but also smaller-name i write about frequently nxt... and name with confusing ST narrative, but rock solid strategy uber...i'd put RIGHT UP THERE with the best mgmt i've come across. obviously this doesn't translate directly into ST moves in the stock etc. etc. but i've subsequently grown my size from small single digits right up to 10% today. i'd LOVE to lose money on this thing short term to make this a 25+% position. this business is inventing the next generation of connected world and owns the most important IP around it. mgmt speaks clearly, with passion and are clearly seeing the future. you'll see me commenting on this name alot more this year as i grow in my understanding and do more and more work. i'd highly recommend pulling down some clips and listening to chris to understand what i mean by a coherent and clearly visionary CEO. 4 bn company... multi-year compounder incoming.

V

Trade closed manually

- i like the LT potential here, but mgmt messed up in a way that keeps me closing the position entirely and moving on with the L
- they put out a press release in mid Dec when they knew that 1Q would be abysmal b/c of the UPS/Amazon damage. neglecting this is borderline behavior at best, i'll be polite bc i like Chris and think he'll continue to do great things in time
- and on the issue of "time" mgmt's 1Q ahead view and then talk about no clue 2Q and 2H is really amateur stuff. they got some layup questions, but managed to paint a pretty "we have no clue" idea. even if you have no clue, there's some basic stuff you simply don't say (unlike the dec update where you DO say it, and not the opposite).
- think the right way to think about this might be 5x sales at 500 mm at best which is a 2.5 bn company and more or less where the stock traded post market - near low 90s. that's the MOST i'd pay ST
- realistically any dump in market/ risk takes us into the 70s-80s and MAYBE i'll bite there again, but if/then maybe other stuff makes more sense.

took the L, sucks. moving on. also "do better" to the mgmt team on communication. i wish you all the best and perhaps join the future journey at some pt, but right now i'm squarely on the sidelines.

V

VROCKSTAR

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