The precious metals complex has been under pressure since the April highs for several reasons. For one, the dollar has been on the rise, and typically when the dollar is ripping higher the precious metals will take a hit to the downside. Also, treasury yields have also been ripping higher adding to the bear case for the metals. Looking at the chart on a weekly basis, there is a solid bull and bear case to consider looking at this market, and as we are nearing the end of the quarter there could be some great volatility.
Bull Case: If you are looking to get long this market, there are a few supporting factors to consider. On the technical side, we are testing major trendline support going back to the pandemic lows, and we have not broken this level when it has been tested and have seen significant rallies from this point. There is also good support from 883-892, and that pocket has held well when tested.
Bear Case: As mentioned before, the dollar and treasury yields have been screaming higher, and have been pressuring the metals lower. With yields and the dollar running up, the metals complex will struggle to find any conviction higher, so keep an eye on those markets to see if we can get a turnaround. If the market does break below this trendline support, then we could see prices sent back down to 860.5.
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