Has the PLTR Bull Trap Fully Matured?
Updated
PLTR has reached the 76t retracement of the previous drop. Unless you're very new to following my work, you'll know I love to trade off 76 fibs.
If you are new, read my strategy post about it:
Quick recap on PLTR analysis history. I have no idea what PLTR does but I became aware of it in 2021 when option sellers on Reddit seemed to think it was free money. I started to think it was a big short. Internet drama ensued.
Traded the main break in PLTR.
Follow up target of "Under 5" (Good forecast if you remove the word "Under").
Then longs from near the low as I pivoted on my overall bearish bias at the end of the 2022 bear move.
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Now we're back into an area where I see high value trading PLTR. A while ago when I exited my longs I took some shorts. I think they ran up 10% or so and hit trailing stops. This time I'm considering a bigger swing trade short in PLTR.
Lot of different ways I can support the general roadmap as well as this specific entry area.
The Elliot waves.
The big harmonic.
The little harmonic.
The fact that to fill this confluence of 76 retracement, C point and double harmonic D point we rallied into that price with a 14% (!!!) up day.
That's a bit sus for a stop hunt - if you believe those are a thing.
All of these add up to tell us there's potential for big resistance around 34 - 35.
Defeating this resistance zone would trigger a full review and possible bull breakout bias on PLTR.
I have discussed the possibility of a new impulse wave in PLTR quite a while ago. If we breakout, we'll revert this plan.
But right now, we're on the big target for a bear trap.
This could be foreseen as a good bull target a long time ago.
If you are new, read my strategy post about it:
Quick recap on PLTR analysis history. I have no idea what PLTR does but I became aware of it in 2021 when option sellers on Reddit seemed to think it was free money. I started to think it was a big short. Internet drama ensued.
Traded the main break in PLTR.
Follow up target of "Under 5" (Good forecast if you remove the word "Under").
Then longs from near the low as I pivoted on my overall bearish bias at the end of the 2022 bear move.
----
Now we're back into an area where I see high value trading PLTR. A while ago when I exited my longs I took some shorts. I think they ran up 10% or so and hit trailing stops. This time I'm considering a bigger swing trade short in PLTR.
Lot of different ways I can support the general roadmap as well as this specific entry area.
The Elliot waves.
The big harmonic.
The little harmonic.
The fact that to fill this confluence of 76 retracement, C point and double harmonic D point we rallied into that price with a 14% (!!!) up day.
That's a bit sus for a stop hunt - if you believe those are a thing.
All of these add up to tell us there's potential for big resistance around 34 - 35.
Defeating this resistance zone would trigger a full review and possible bull breakout bias on PLTR.
I have discussed the possibility of a new impulse wave in PLTR quite a while ago. If we breakout, we'll revert this plan.
But right now, we're on the big target for a bear trap.
This could be foreseen as a good bull target a long time ago.
Trade active
Have positions in this now. Plan to short calls on for a long time if we begin to downtrend.
Currently fading a 36 break.
Trade active
Puts coming on this today.
The trading pattern I I like to use here is short calls into the spike. Looking for the market to slow down at resistance.
Then if we range for a while I start to think about puts. Trying to enter near the end of the range and just before the break - ideally. Doesn't always work like that.
But probably puts coming soon on PLTR.
Note
Roadmap of how I'd expect the short to form.
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