Long

Palantir (PLTR) Breaking out - Transitioned from Accumulation

Updated

After a month of accumulation, I believe that we are transitioning out of the Accumulation phase. The short distribution period we saw after the first rally was not the institutions taking profits, but early retail investors and employees, as this company direct listed. The institutional distribution has yet to occur.

Conservative Price Target: $60 by late Feb. and $70 by summer.

Very bullish long term.

Trade active

As expected: the positive PR and analyst upgrades begin, with confirmation of transition.

Jefferies analyst raised PT: $18 - $30
streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=17806262

Trade active

Wave 3 will be run-up to live demo and ER, which is expected to be a blowout:

investors.palantir.com/news-details/2020/Palantir-Announces-Inaugural-Live-Demo-Day-on-January-26-2021/default.aspx

Palantir announces that they are finalists in FDIC R&D competition:
fdic.gov/fditech/rpp.html

Competition results should be announced after March 2021, which lines up shortly after the lockup expiry.

Wave 4 correction should be after lockup expiry ends and ER sellers, then shortly after, predicting a win from Palantir for the wave 5 to my PT.

Note that Palantir has major breakthroughs in the financial field, helping JP Morgan and Credit Suisse, as well as exposing Bernie Madoff's $60 billion dollar scandal.

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White House launches National AI Office:

whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/white-house-launches-national-artificial-intelligence-initiative-office/

Annual AI budget of last year was $973.5 million, this years is stated to be double.
News reported Palantir by name today reporting the White House AI division.
NDAA was $740 billion USD, details soon.

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Catherine Wood of ARK Invest buys 500,000+ shares after hours, bringing her total to over 2 million. It seems this stock is a part of ARKX as well.

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Stephen Cohen also files for premerger notification:

ftc.gov/enforcement/premerger-notification-program/early-termination-notices/20210753

PLTR scores a commercial partnership with PG&E energy company. EV partnership in the making? Peter Thiel and Elon Musk are close

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Comment: Avril Haines becomes director of national intelligence. Former Palantirian and very closely linked. The contract IS coming.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-21/haines-wins-senate-confirmation-as-national-intelligence-chief

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Lauren Friedman Stat joins the Board of Directors:

"Ms. Stat brings a wide range of business and leadership experience, including 15 years of experience at Accenture, where she served as a senior advisor to Fortune 100 companies, helping her clients develop new strategies, optimize operations, and manage large-scale change"

Commercialization coming

businesswire.com/news/home/20210121005938/en/Lauren-Friedman-Stat-Joins-Palantir-Board-of-Directors

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Many people have been asking my thoughts on the lockup expiration. First let's compare 2 very similar tech IPOs:

Lemonade:

Snowflake:

My thoughts:
- The stock runs up before lock-up expiry, drops inevitably, but rises further.
- The key is that the expiration is PRICED IN. Most investors are sidelined until this occurs as they fear the drop.
- See Snowflake, as the looming march lockup expiration date drops it, yet the the first expiration made it run up 86%

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"You will be ridiculed for your non-consensus thought, but it is worth it." - Catherine Wood.

PLTR30.

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My thoughts on live demo, ER, lockup expiry:

- Institutions know the live demo and/or the ER will be massive, hence the manipulation and accumulating, probably contracts as well.
- ER will beat with flying colors without a doubt.
- Lockup expiry will have us run up, small dip on expiration, but back up further, as sidelined money pours in.

Seeing 40-70 Q1

Trade active

Updated thoughts and speculations on next 2 weeks and beyond:

- We continue to rally to 40-45
- I believe the market is pumping for big tech earnings Jan. 26-Feb.4 ish, FAANGMT and co. and will correct after, around Feb. 4
- Palantir will inevitably pullback to 30-33~ and previous resistance will act as support
- Palantir seems to be decoupled from the market, and will recover quickly in anticipating for Feb.11 ER and lockup expiration to around 50
- pullback on lockup expiration back into previous channel 36-40
- Bounce and up to 70 by Summer as freed shares are picked up by sidelined investors, founders and institutions

Note

Clear skies tomorrow. We saw the hard rejection at 40, because the MM is forced to gamma hedge over that:

They will want to drop it below 40, but is unlikely, due to the catalyst tomorrow, especially it being AH - genius. They will be forced to gamma hedge over 40.

imgur.com/264xnX4

The gamma exposure on the 15th really killed them:

imgur.com/vkAe9dp

Call skew and IV rising:

imgur.com/yDh3ueQ

Dark Pool rising:
- As expected, MM is forced to hedge. They know its going to rocket:

imgur.com/Aa1S3AV

- Speculating that the MM is Cohen himself, or one under him, because the sell pressure dropped once Cohen was forced to bailout Melvin for 2.75 bn for the GME short squeeze.
- They might just abandon trying to hold this down to focus and saving Melvin from liquidation at GME.

This week could be incredible. GLTA

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The key is that Cohen and co. may be the MMs holding this down and may abandon any short attempts and be forced to hedge to save their GME position from liquidations. They are billions underwater there.

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I want to add that Jan.15 was the moment that the gamma exposure went extreme negative and forced the reversal. This was the day that Cathie Wood attacked:
thestreet.com/investing/palantir-pltr-stock-ark-next-generation-internet-etf

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Live demo day. Lets see the AH move!

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Live Demo was a blowout success IMO.

The key is that they are basically Uber for data. Abstracting big data and ML away so anyone can create their own SaaS.

Predicting 0.5bn+ company

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Insane day. MM is close to liquidation. Shakeout attempts getting extreme. Over 40 is the gamma squeeze potential.

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Blood Moon is rising for Melvin and co.

Their shorted tickers are rising everywhere while their other assets are being liquidated, tanking the market, to cover them. This fraud has run deep.

Soon they collapse.

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Next TP level is 48.5. We are very close to gamma squeeze levels. Over the huge 40 OI wall, there is incredible damage for the MM. The original PT of 70 could be reached this week or the next if Melvin and co. are forced to liquidate when they must pay out the GME calls expiring Friday.

Where we are at today:

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Thoughts on level of PT this ascendance phase:

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"DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) announced today it has signed a multi-year enterprise agreement for its Foundry Platform with Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO), one of the world’s leading mining and metals corporations."

This is absolutely massive. Metals and REE sector is booming, and it means the best-in-class of enterprise is willing to partner with Palantir. More to come.

businesswire.com/news/home/20210128005373/en/Description:

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The ER and lockup expiration is approaching. It is time to start preparing for our actions for this period.

I speculate that it will be extremely volatile. The ER will be a monster blowout, but the media will go all out with FUD for the lockup expiration.

I will be playing a strangle into this period, as I believe there is still great upside, but the pullback is inevitable.

Once the dust settles, it will be time for shares and premium generating strategies.

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Incredible coordinated fraud by Robinhood, other brokerages and Citadel to halt markets and liquidate positions involuntarily.

Allowed them to cover their most dangerous short positions and renew their pinning efforts on PLTR. The gamma squeeze was prevented this week, but the ascendance is inevitable, as the big institutions themselves are bullish on this company. This is no Gamestop.

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Updated thoughts for next week - ER:

- 40 strike options were expired worthless, so the pinning will let up as they concentrate their efforts on GME, which is heating up even further
- OI makes these target levels sensible
- We now have a megaphone pattern

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Confirmation of Major commercial partnerships: FB, Rio Tinto, BP, possibly AT&T, PG&E

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IBM partnership... They are now distributing PLTR's software. This changes everything.

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Wanted to add the lockup expiration behavior of FB and SQ to the list

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Uber:

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FB:

Roughly 800 million Facebook shares were eligible for sale on Wednesday after restrictions on insider selling were lifted on the biggest block since Facebook’s May initial public offering.

The lockup expiration greatly expands the 921-million-share “float” available for trading on the market until now.

“We’ve seen this before with other lockups. People sell them leading up to the lockup period expiring, and then they have a bit of a relief rally,” said Ryan Jacob, chief executive of the Jacob Funds, which does not own Facebook shares.

In August, shares of the online reviews website Yelp Inc surged by more than 20 percent on the day that insider trading restrictions expired. That stock’s rally was boosted as short-sellers scrambled to cover their positions when the expected flood of selling failed to materialize, say analysts.

UnknownUnicorn1043646

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