PRAX Analysis after new securities sales, and recent agreements
Updated
8791877 = Shares as of 31st December + New sales to BCPE
@
initial book value of 10.12 + (443k shares @ 22.56)
= 10.832665237 new book value
+
approx 4230000 of shares and warrants sales approx near @33.5
= approx 18.84$ / share
+ 5M in cash payment
= 19.22$ / share
Total Shares = 13021877
Anticipated quarterly loss between 2 to 3$ per share
264M$ on milestone achievements for development, regulatory and commercialization
(subject to milestone achievements)
Let's say milestones achievements takes between 6 mos to 2 years as follows:
1) 6 months scenario - development
= loss of approx 4-6$ per share
= +88M for development milestone achievement
= -5$ loss + 19.22 + (
88M if milestone is achieved)
= 20.597$ with milestone
= 14.22$ without milestone
2) 1 year scenario - development+regulatory
= loss of approx 8-12$ per share
= +132M for development+regulatory milestones achievement
= -10$ loss + 19.22 + (132M if both milestones are achieved) + (or88M if only one milestone is achieved)
= 9.22$ without any milestone
= 15.97$ with one milestone
= 19.35$ with both milestones
3) 2 years scenario - dev+reg+commercialization
= loss of approx 16-24$ per share
= +264M for development + regulatory + commercialization milestones achievement
= -20$ loss + 19.22 + (264M with 3 milestones) + (or 132M with two milestones) + (or88M with one milestone)
= -0.78$ with no milestones
= $5.97 with one milestone
= $9.35 with two milestones
= $19.49 with all 3 milestones
These calculations assume there's no other additional securities sale than above.
@
initial book value of 10.12 + (443k shares @ 22.56)
= 10.832665237 new book value
+
approx 4230000 of shares and warrants sales approx near @33.5
= approx 18.84$ / share
+ 5M in cash payment
= 19.22$ / share
Total Shares = 13021877
Anticipated quarterly loss between 2 to 3$ per share
264M$ on milestone achievements for development, regulatory and commercialization
(subject to milestone achievements)
Let's say milestones achievements takes between 6 mos to 2 years as follows:
1) 6 months scenario - development
= loss of approx 4-6$ per share
= +88M for development milestone achievement
= -5$ loss + 19.22 + (
88M if milestone is achieved)= 20.597$ with milestone
= 14.22$ without milestone
2) 1 year scenario - development+regulatory
= loss of approx 8-12$ per share
= +132M for development+regulatory milestones achievement
= -10$ loss + 19.22 + (132M if both milestones are achieved) + (or
88M if only one milestone is achieved)= 9.22$ without any milestone
= 15.97$ with one milestone
= 19.35$ with both milestones
3) 2 years scenario - dev+reg+commercialization
= loss of approx 16-24$ per share
= +264M for development + regulatory + commercialization milestones achievement
= -20$ loss + 19.22 + (264M with 3 milestones) + (or 132M with two milestones) + (or
88M with one milestone)= -0.78$ with no milestones
= $5.97 with one milestone
= $9.35 with two milestones
= $19.49 with all 3 milestones
These calculations assume there's no other additional securities sale than above.
Comment
Given short term purchases at 35.5/share in total of 150M (recurring dilution until finished) and current shares outstanding, short term book value would be 19.22$ / share.Plus, as achievement of milestones is uncertain.
Although, cash burn is certain.
Considering imminent dilution to upto 19.22$ / share uncertainties on any milestones, imminent recurring cash-burn, and debt, the stock is trading at a significant premium.
Hence, a short tag!
Comment
Today's rally, followed by sudden retracement from 45 to 40.7 indicates almost confirmation of a Double Top for PRAXTrade closed: stop reached
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