Peloton has lost -81% since January 2021. The pain and destruction in this chart are real. But we know that nothing goes up or down forever. JP Morgan finally downgraded the stock on 31 Dec, which is so unbelievably late that we may now take a contrarian position.
Elliott:
We are able to count 5 waves to the downside. The 78.6% retracement is at 29.
Geometry:
Price is approaching the lower boundary of the pitchfork/channel. Price responded well to the previous fibonacci levels within the channel.
Oscillators:
The Stochastic is oversold since Nov, and due to move up. The RSI shows a bullish divergence.
How to trade it:
PTON may drop further to complete the wave and reach the lower boundary of the channel. The idea is to pick the stock up at this level and to increase long exposure once we observe a higher high, indicating the break of the downtrend.