Peloton / PTON - Pumpy Before Dumpy
Updated
I really haven't paid any attention to this stock, ever, besides knowing that it was up a lot because "COVID MANDATES ARE 'SAVING LIVES'" and "WORKING FROM HOME IS SO GREAT AND WE NEVER KNEW ALL THESE YEARS," the propaganda outlets said.
And then dumped remarkably on the back of a lot of bad press like that time someone died on one on Sex and the City, and because people went back to their offices like human beings ought to instead of sitting on Zoom and being surveilled by the Chinese Communist Party.
Anyway, I only started taking a look at this today because it dumped 18% on the back of earnings. I have to say the earnings dump and pump schedule across all stocks is like flipping a coin. On some of them, bad earnings = 20% moon. On others, good earnings = 30% doom.
But I've always said that news is just there to front run the regularly scheduled price. It doesn't drive the price. No, really. Machine learning AI knows what's going to happen before the media and the public does.
The market maker is simply timing what is already arranged to happen with the news so that Bloomberg and Zerohedge can write headlines like "Peloton down 900% because VLADIMIR PUTIN BAD" and you lose money buying options accordingly and when the implied volatility is pumped.
Unless it's like, someone drops a nuke or someone suddenly goes Black Swan bankrupt, this is how it really works.
Anyway, Peloton trades way below its 2020 post-ICO lows as it is, and it made a low in July under $10. Its price action has been curious. In my view, it's been trading like it wants to go up after spending the better part of 2.5 months under $10 and flirting with going over $10, and then actually going over $10 during this bear market rally.
The way it took out the June monthly high by a penny before dumping, leaving a lot of unfinished business only visible on the hourly chart slightly above, makes me think that the intention with this stock is to rip out the May double top and break the necks of a lot of short sellers, who somehow didn't close their positions at $8 and $10, and even today at $11, even though they were up like 100%.
But I also believe that after this act of this tragedy is finished, Peloton is headed for an all new low. It has no price history, but $5 sounds like a nice round number.
Because it didn't make a very convincing bottom under $10 to begin with, and because everything is heading for an all new low as the propaganda outlets start telling us "omg recession omg recession omg recession" as SPX dumps impotently, but frighteningly fast to the 3,500s.
After they're done getting everyone to sell low and get short, the Fed will slash rates and print money again, because they're liars compromised by the Chinese Communist Party, and everyone can buy back higher and chase the rip in the other direction to 2023's impending "return to normal" or Bump and Run Reversal bubble blowout patterns.
Of course, Peloton could also just head for new lows from where it is too. Part of me thinks that's rather likely.
But the way it took out the June high by a penny and left unfinished business above is truly suspect for the bears, who seem like they're about to get their necks snapped.
And then dumped remarkably on the back of a lot of bad press like that time someone died on one on Sex and the City, and because people went back to their offices like human beings ought to instead of sitting on Zoom and being surveilled by the Chinese Communist Party.
Anyway, I only started taking a look at this today because it dumped 18% on the back of earnings. I have to say the earnings dump and pump schedule across all stocks is like flipping a coin. On some of them, bad earnings = 20% moon. On others, good earnings = 30% doom.
But I've always said that news is just there to front run the regularly scheduled price. It doesn't drive the price. No, really. Machine learning AI knows what's going to happen before the media and the public does.
The market maker is simply timing what is already arranged to happen with the news so that Bloomberg and Zerohedge can write headlines like "Peloton down 900% because VLADIMIR PUTIN BAD" and you lose money buying options accordingly and when the implied volatility is pumped.
Unless it's like, someone drops a nuke or someone suddenly goes Black Swan bankrupt, this is how it really works.
Anyway, Peloton trades way below its 2020 post-ICO lows as it is, and it made a low in July under $10. Its price action has been curious. In my view, it's been trading like it wants to go up after spending the better part of 2.5 months under $10 and flirting with going over $10, and then actually going over $10 during this bear market rally.
The way it took out the June monthly high by a penny before dumping, leaving a lot of unfinished business only visible on the hourly chart slightly above, makes me think that the intention with this stock is to rip out the May double top and break the necks of a lot of short sellers, who somehow didn't close their positions at $8 and $10, and even today at $11, even though they were up like 100%.
But I also believe that after this act of this tragedy is finished, Peloton is headed for an all new low. It has no price history, but $5 sounds like a nice round number.
Because it didn't make a very convincing bottom under $10 to begin with, and because everything is heading for an all new low as the propaganda outlets start telling us "omg recession omg recession omg recession" as SPX dumps impotently, but frighteningly fast to the 3,500s.
After they're done getting everyone to sell low and get short, the Fed will slash rates and print money again, because they're liars compromised by the Chinese Communist Party, and everyone can buy back higher and chase the rip in the other direction to 2023's impending "return to normal" or Bump and Run Reversal bubble blowout patterns.
Of course, Peloton could also just head for new lows from where it is too. Part of me thinks that's rather likely.
But the way it took out the June high by a penny and left unfinished business above is truly suspect for the bears, who seem like they're about to get their necks snapped.
Note
I suppose an important caveat to this call is whether or not the Fed blows up the market Friday morning.Actually, even if it does, some things should still go pumpy while the indexes are dumpy.... unless they're like 2008/pandemic dumpy...
Note
Well, the Fed did not overtly nuke the market at least.I like that Peloton, despite making a new low at open, held the Aug. 8 low, forming a double bottom, and actually had very strong price action while the indices and stocks melted down post-Fed hawkery:
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