Long

Paypal ($PYPL) - close to done correcting?

Updated

There are multiple ways to count the move up, I have two different possibilities on the chart. Either way, I think at this points it's enough to assume that was an impulse. On the correction side I propose a Zigzag, with the C wave as a contracting diagonale, that is missing the C-wave of the wave 5.

The volume profile shows very little volume between 55 and 58, so anything more than a tiny dip in that zone might very well lead to 55 and below.

Whether there will be a noteworthy retracement before the possibly last move down or not, we will have to see. It might just continue going down to finish. I'd be looking at 53-55 for a bottom, though the count will stay valid until around 47.

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Getting there...

B wave might also not be done yet.

Anyway, still looking for under 55

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It's always a bit of a challenge with diags. Can't really call them done too early and we're not at the point yet, where you can be really sure.

That being said, so far it played out pretty much as predicted and one can't deny that we have a good candidate for a low here.

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I don't have a clear favorite here, but some possibilities I see:

a) A diagonale from the low:

b) ZigZag from the low with a diagonale C-wave or 1-2 followed by a second wave 1 as a diagonale

c) Two finished 1-2s and we're in wave 3 now of 3 now

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Another possibility: A different diag, expanding instead of contracting:

Since the subwaves look like impulses then, this case wouldn't work as a C-wave, so if it's that, it would have to be two big 1-2s or even more extreme four 1-2s.

(Previously shown possibilities are generally, with slight adjustments, still possible though)

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A bit tricky as far as a count goes.

Assuming the low is in, I'd be partial to a leading diag at this point of time:

Alternative would have the 1 one high earlier with a sideways wave 2 that might not be done yet:

Getting a clean subcount out of that 1 is a bit of challenge though.

Would look for another dip below 58$.

Note

That dip below 58$ was delivered :)

Sticking with the two counts shown in the previous update under the "low is in" assumption:

1a)

On the lower timeframes you can get 3-swing structures out of the moves labeled W, Y and Z.

This count would allow for a finished corrective.

The yellow 2 might not be finished yet though - it could still be missing the C-wave down.

1b)

The move from the top, instead of a finish corrective, would also work as a leading diag, which for this count would be just the A wave.

2)

As mentioned in 1a) you can get 3-swing structures out of the swings from the top, so it would also work as an ending diag, possibly as a C-wave of some kind of flat wave here, which would lead to the same conclusions as 1a)

Some more lines for your viewing pleasure:

What? You want more lines that show relevance? Ok, ok... here you go:

Note

Continuing where we left off. We moved further up as expected in all previously shown scenarios

In the white count we've only finished wave 3 of 3, in the blue count we've already finished the whole wave 3 (of the assumed impulse from the 55.80$ low).

Until we make a new high the bigger corrective (1b from the previous update is still on the table)

The level shown in the last image of the last update sure did show relevance:

Red box (orange horizontal) denied further movement, green box (red line) held the price before the bigger move up. We're now above a level cluster (orange box) - holding this would look good with the bullish counts of the first image. A loss of the orange box could lead to a test of the orange line from above, which would still fit into the blue count.

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Couldn't have followed the blue count/path from the last update any better than this:

Most bullish interpretation would be 1-2 1-2 (continued blue/white count). On the other hand it could also be seen as a finished zigzag (orange). Needs to develop further from here to make any calls with more conviction.

Since the last move up looks very 3 wavish though, there's also the alternative of a contracting diag here:

This would allow for a longer/bigger correction from here on out, in which case a dip into some level clusters right under 60$ would look interesting:

Once we get more than a fake breakout into the 70s, I'd be looking for 85$-93$ for starters

Fibonacci Pitchforks gave some hints for resistance:

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A bit too early to really call anything yet with conviction, but for the time being the diag count seems to be the more likely one (second image last update) and for now we got a bit of a bounce exactly from the predicted zone (third image last update):

I'd want to see at least a new local high to be happy with the bounce and for the bigger picture this whole corrective move could also just be the first actionary wave.

Outer pitchfork lines (last image from the last update) did also provide some support here:

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One more slight sweep to kick out those that had a stop below the last low and up it went. Ultimately the shown zone still held and we went straight into some resistance levels around 67$:

What now?

Sticking with the diag from the 50$ low - countwise, for the most bullish case, we would have finished the correction possibly like this:

There are some alternatives, where the correction is not finished yet, for example as a flat like this:

or as a multi-zigzag, with a flat as an X-wave like this:

Time will tell, either way, on the short term, the 57$-60$ zone, shown almost two months in advance gave a decent 10%+ reaction.

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Relevant levels as shown in the first image of the last update:

Countwise PA move very much according to the two first counts shown in the last update (second and third image):

For the impulse above, unless we get a noteworthy extension in wave 5, the current move would look a bit short for a wave 3, so it could be a 1-2 1-2 (either overall or just inside of wave 3).

The other proposed count was a sideways correction, here shown as a flat (could also finish as a different sideways correction):

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Slightly different count from the previously proposed:

Wave 3 could be done already or give one more kick into that 92$ orderblock:

TophatPandaMagician

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