QQQ MACD Bearish Crossing on Monthly Chart.
Looking for patterns on QQQ, or the ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100, which is known for tech stocks, you can see that the last time it bear crossed on the monthly chart was right before the COVID crash, where it just barely crossed, surprisingly. The time before that, was October 2018, when there was worry that the FED would increase interest rates too fast as well as fear of a trade war with China during Trump's presidency.
It has already begun to cross down (bear cross), looks like it actually started in January 2022. MACD stands for Moving average convergence divergence, and it is commonly seen as a momentum indicator. When it crosses down, that is a sell signal, and when it crosses up, that is a buy signal. On higher timeframes (monthly) as opposed to lower timeframes (15 or 5 mins), it holds more significance as it takes more "energy" to swing it one way or another. Combine that with the seasonality chart from the last 20 years, you'll also notice that the return on QQQ tends to go down in the middle of February, we could see a pretty significant dip in the price in the next 2 weeks. Currently we are 18% off highs, but my target is around 25%, which would be $300 for QQQ before we see buyers step in again.
We need to remember to view the stock market in probabilities, so I fully admit i could end up being wrong if there's news that comes out that causes the market to come roaring back. But how likely is that? Seems unlikely with all the uncertainty with the Ukraine news, inflation at highs. However, anything is possible in the stock market as we have seen with the constant buy the dip the last 2 years. But as of right now, bears are in control until proven otherwise.
It has already begun to cross down (bear cross), looks like it actually started in January 2022. MACD stands for Moving average convergence divergence, and it is commonly seen as a momentum indicator. When it crosses down, that is a sell signal, and when it crosses up, that is a buy signal. On higher timeframes (monthly) as opposed to lower timeframes (15 or 5 mins), it holds more significance as it takes more "energy" to swing it one way or another. Combine that with the seasonality chart from the last 20 years, you'll also notice that the return on QQQ tends to go down in the middle of February, we could see a pretty significant dip in the price in the next 2 weeks. Currently we are 18% off highs, but my target is around 25%, which would be $300 for QQQ before we see buyers step in again.
We need to remember to view the stock market in probabilities, so I fully admit i could end up being wrong if there's news that comes out that causes the market to come roaring back. But how likely is that? Seems unlikely with all the uncertainty with the Ukraine news, inflation at highs. However, anything is possible in the stock market as we have seen with the constant buy the dip the last 2 years. But as of right now, bears are in control until proven otherwise.
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