QQQ: Bearish Reversal Likely — Weak Buyer Conviction at Key Resi
QQQ may be setting up for a bearish reversal, as several technical confluences suggest the recent rally is losing steam. Despite a short-term bounce, price is approaching a critical decision zone, and buyers appear to lack conviction.
🔺 1. Price Testing Upper Boundary of Descending Channel
QQQ has rallied into the upper boundary of the descending channel (yellow lines) that’s been in place since late December. This often acts as resistance—and the price has yet to break above it with strength.
🔵 2. Hitting the Edge of Rising Regression Channel
The current price is tagging the upper edge of the blue rising regression channel, an area that has previously triggered sell-offs. Unless there’s a decisive breakout, this could mark a local top.
📉 3. Volume Divergence – Weak Buyer Interest
Despite the recent rally attempt, volume is declining, showing clear divergence. This is a warning sign: while price moves up, momentum is fading, and buyers don’t appear to be stepping in strongly. It’s often a precursor to a reversal.
🟩 4. Lower Boundary of Rising Channel Still Intact... For Now
Price remains near the long-term rising channel’s lower support, but failure to hold this level could trigger accelerated downside.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
🔻 Resistance
490.13 – 494.67:
This zone is packed with prior support-turned-resistance and coincides with the descending and regression channel boundaries. A rejection here would confirm the bearish thesis.
499.44:
A psychological and historical resistance level. Bears would likely pile in if price fails here again.
🔺 Support
488.15:
Immediate minor support. Weak defense here could quickly lead to further selling.
477.59:
Next key level below current price. If breached, it could validate a more extended correction.
🧠 Summary:
QQQ is at a technical crossroads, with several overlapping resistance levels and a clear lack of buying volume. Until buyers show conviction above 494–495, the setup favors a bearish reversal from current levels.
🔔 Watch for a rejection around 490–495 with increasing sell volume for confirmation.
💬 What’s your outlook? Do you see further downside or a breakout brewing?
🔺 1. Price Testing Upper Boundary of Descending Channel
QQQ has rallied into the upper boundary of the descending channel (yellow lines) that’s been in place since late December. This often acts as resistance—and the price has yet to break above it with strength.
🔵 2. Hitting the Edge of Rising Regression Channel
The current price is tagging the upper edge of the blue rising regression channel, an area that has previously triggered sell-offs. Unless there’s a decisive breakout, this could mark a local top.
📉 3. Volume Divergence – Weak Buyer Interest
Despite the recent rally attempt, volume is declining, showing clear divergence. This is a warning sign: while price moves up, momentum is fading, and buyers don’t appear to be stepping in strongly. It’s often a precursor to a reversal.
🟩 4. Lower Boundary of Rising Channel Still Intact... For Now
Price remains near the long-term rising channel’s lower support, but failure to hold this level could trigger accelerated downside.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
🔻 Resistance
490.13 – 494.67:
This zone is packed with prior support-turned-resistance and coincides with the descending and regression channel boundaries. A rejection here would confirm the bearish thesis.
499.44:
A psychological and historical resistance level. Bears would likely pile in if price fails here again.
🔺 Support
488.15:
Immediate minor support. Weak defense here could quickly lead to further selling.
477.59:
Next key level below current price. If breached, it could validate a more extended correction.
🧠 Summary:
QQQ is at a technical crossroads, with several overlapping resistance levels and a clear lack of buying volume. Until buyers show conviction above 494–495, the setup favors a bearish reversal from current levels.
🔔 Watch for a rejection around 490–495 with increasing sell volume for confirmation.
💬 What’s your outlook? Do you see further downside or a breakout brewing?
Trade active
This is a follow-up to my recent post calling for a bearish reversal in QQQ. The price action has unfolded almost exactly as anticipated, with rejection at major resistance levels and a clean break below the rising channel.🔍 Recap of the Setup:
Price had rallied into a cluster of resistance: the upper edge of the blue regression channel, the descending channel (yellow), and horizontal resistance near 490–494.
I highlighted volume divergence—a sign that the rally lacked true buyer conviction.
A rejection at that zone was the primary scenario, and price has since broken down out of the rising channel.
🔻 What’s Happened Since:
Price failed to break through 490.13 and turned sharply lower.
The rising blue channel has been broken with strong volume, confirming the weak hands behind the recent rally.
We’re now sitting just above 480.87, a short-term support zone, but momentum clearly favors the downside.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch Now:
Support:
480.87 (current level): minor support; if this breaks convincingly, downside pressure will increase.
477.59: major support below; potential bounce zone, but a break here could lead to a sharper correction.
Below that, watch the descending channel’s lower boundary for structure-based support.
Resistance:
484.50 – 485.00: may act as intraday resistance if there's a retest.
488.15 – 490.13: remains the critical resistance zone. As long as price stays below this, the bearish bias holds.
🔍 What I'm Watching:
Whether 480.87 breaks with volume—that could confirm a move toward 477 or lower.
If price retests the bottom of the broken rising channel and gets rejected, it would further confirm bearish control.
Continuation volume on the downside would validate the next leg down.
🧠 Summary:
The breakdown confirms the original bearish thesis. Rejection at resistance, weak volume on the way up, and follow-through to the downside all point toward continued weakness in the near term. Stay alert for retests and potential acceleration below 477.
🔔 Setting alerts at 480 and 477 for breakdown continuation or bounce setups
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.