QQQ SHORT SQUEEZE until Dec. 2023
Tech stocks are fighting for the long term purple average / support line and completing an exploratory channel top. This channel may not be ultimate truth, but I had a different channel projection before and this one really fits now with this bottom we established. We are likely on our way to the head of the pattern. The bottom provides the angle of attack. I expect the weakness of this move to keep the drips inside the triangle, but we could end up with a lot of top wicks also. I think we're about to Wyckoff our way to a crest with large institutional selling against dumb retail traders like myself. Once the pattern completes and we fail the purple line, all bets are off. I don't see this ending well. When a channel completes, usually it retraces back down to the 23% fib of the channel. That's like an 80% drop in tech value, with support also aligning up with the top of the 2000 bubble. But that is the last major volume profile spike and longer term major point of control. If we go up and into this pattern, and if a massive amount of buying volume appears, we could be safe. But volume is getting thinner every quarter and the volume profile during the end of this year will reveal if this really is the top. It will have a couple chances to break above this long term channel, and it well could.
My previous channel had our current high as defining the 78.6%, not the sub fib 50% (fibs split up between the established major dashed fibs), but that seemed way too bullish for a short squeeze. And current angle of attack puts the top where I have it in here. The volatility and swing patterns, for me, always suggest a forming H/S. But anything could happen.
Ultimately, we've been using this purple support line since 1997. If this is the channel top coming, then we can fail this line and stay within the established channel defined by previous recession dips. Honestly, it looks scary, but we can't stay on a perfect line of value forever. After humpty dumpty takes a great fall, we'll find real value again and hopefully use this channel for tech for a really long time. Break out of it in the 2030s if real growth expansion is possible.
My previous channel had our current high as defining the 78.6%, not the sub fib 50% (fibs split up between the established major dashed fibs), but that seemed way too bullish for a short squeeze. And current angle of attack puts the top where I have it in here. The volatility and swing patterns, for me, always suggest a forming H/S. But anything could happen.
Ultimately, we've been using this purple support line since 1997. If this is the channel top coming, then we can fail this line and stay within the established channel defined by previous recession dips. Honestly, it looks scary, but we can't stay on a perfect line of value forever. After humpty dumpty takes a great fall, we'll find real value again and hopefully use this channel for tech for a really long time. Break out of it in the 2030s if real growth expansion is possible.
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