3/31/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
QQQ
Correlation 1... no more protection 4 me
- bought back all my (covered calls) on the "rental" book, which is
VST, 
UBER, 
DECK, 
BLDE, 
GAMB as i'd rather take the 15-20% downside on what I believe are stocks that have at least 2x this in terms of upside into YE at this pt. esp in a quarter-end tape that simply looks "scared"
- and i hear you guys that r saying "Bessent" told you more pain to come and "yes", but we shouldn't be believing anyone at this stage, friends. Think critically. here are some pts:
- on my S&P math, the average stock is now down 20% from it's peak. i've writtent extensively about VIX mgmt and mag7 as a component of this equation. we've seen diff sectors, stocks and most importantly mag7 rotate seats (from cold to hot) at varying points in order to smooth the index. therefore, the index is the illusion here. "only an 8% correction" is meaningful in the above context.
- i've reviewed all 500 of the S&P stocks in the last month, and on my thinking, about 80% of them are pretty obvious buys from a MT (nevermind LT context), let's describe MT as 12-18 months. that's not to say there isn't more downside, but buying the index at this pt (to low-IQ and chill) means you'll probably enter pretty well here
- and the narrative/ thinking around AI is probably correct that "a lot of things are going to get demonetized especially software". but the mkt is currently confusing a few things. when we are correlation 1... the market says "all AI-related plays are losers" and that's objectively false. perhaps there will be more losers than winners, because this game of scale is one we haven't seen before. but when you're, say, selling something like NVDA that can't even meet it's chip demand for the next 2 years, trading at 4% FCF yield and growing >20% a year (probably 30-40% CAGR on my conservative math) versus a 10Y being forced lower and you tack on reinvestment risk to trying to "time" the NVDA bottom (which is *probably* at most 15-20% lower)... i'd contend - you're doing it wrong - or you think you're god. nobody times the bottom. we risk manage upside and downside risks with the book.
- so acknowledging tariffs matter, rates matter, short term speech drives emotion. take a step back. i'd argue we're much closer to the bottom than the MSM will let on, as they're index-only thinkers.
- what i'm really looking for is an open below lows (like we had today) and a massive red to green reversal. those have marked all major bottoms. again. we might have a few of these b/c we are in a whacky tape, but that sort of move should be taken into account.
- one more point. seeing my favorite position
NXT dump nearly 6% at the open on "flows" and get rebid basically non-stop until i'm currently writing this... tells me most of what you're seeing is quarter-end balancers, so don't lose the signal through the noise.
- i bought more
OBTC today to top off too, even tho volume light (i'm probably 100% of that volume today already). limits only on this thing.
- most importantly keep your head screwed on. last man standing without getting emotional wins, always. been here, done this. it never gets easier. but you learn to control your emotions. so take a step back. if you're sweating, take some exposure off, you're too big. but if you've made it this far, don't give up. assets > liabilities in this world. and the USD is ultimately a liability. never forget that. the goal isn't to accumulate dollars, but assets.
V
QQQCorrelation 1... no more protection 4 me
- bought back all my (covered calls) on the "rental" book, which is
VST, UBER, DECK, BLDE, GAMB as i'd rather take the 15-20% downside on what I believe are stocks that have at least 2x this in terms of upside into YE at this pt. esp in a quarter-end tape that simply looks "scared"- and i hear you guys that r saying "Bessent" told you more pain to come and "yes", but we shouldn't be believing anyone at this stage, friends. Think critically. here are some pts:
- on my S&P math, the average stock is now down 20% from it's peak. i've writtent extensively about VIX mgmt and mag7 as a component of this equation. we've seen diff sectors, stocks and most importantly mag7 rotate seats (from cold to hot) at varying points in order to smooth the index. therefore, the index is the illusion here. "only an 8% correction" is meaningful in the above context.
- i've reviewed all 500 of the S&P stocks in the last month, and on my thinking, about 80% of them are pretty obvious buys from a MT (nevermind LT context), let's describe MT as 12-18 months. that's not to say there isn't more downside, but buying the index at this pt (to low-IQ and chill) means you'll probably enter pretty well here
- and the narrative/ thinking around AI is probably correct that "a lot of things are going to get demonetized especially software". but the mkt is currently confusing a few things. when we are correlation 1... the market says "all AI-related plays are losers" and that's objectively false. perhaps there will be more losers than winners, because this game of scale is one we haven't seen before. but when you're, say, selling something like NVDA that can't even meet it's chip demand for the next 2 years, trading at 4% FCF yield and growing >20% a year (probably 30-40% CAGR on my conservative math) versus a 10Y being forced lower and you tack on reinvestment risk to trying to "time" the NVDA bottom (which is *probably* at most 15-20% lower)... i'd contend - you're doing it wrong - or you think you're god. nobody times the bottom. we risk manage upside and downside risks with the book.
- so acknowledging tariffs matter, rates matter, short term speech drives emotion. take a step back. i'd argue we're much closer to the bottom than the MSM will let on, as they're index-only thinkers.
- what i'm really looking for is an open below lows (like we had today) and a massive red to green reversal. those have marked all major bottoms. again. we might have a few of these b/c we are in a whacky tape, but that sort of move should be taken into account.
- one more point. seeing my favorite position
NXT dump nearly 6% at the open on "flows" and get rebid basically non-stop until i'm currently writing this... tells me most of what you're seeing is quarter-end balancers, so don't lose the signal through the noise.- i bought more
OBTC today to top off too, even tho volume light (i'm probably 100% of that volume today already). limits only on this thing.- most importantly keep your head screwed on. last man standing without getting emotional wins, always. been here, done this. it never gets easier. but you learn to control your emotions. so take a step back. if you're sweating, take some exposure off, you're too big. but if you've made it this far, don't give up. assets > liabilities in this world. and the USD is ultimately a liability. never forget that. the goal isn't to accumulate dollars, but assets.
V
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.