After the double top confirmed in mid-Feb, I expect that we see a retrace to previous pivot points around 495 - 509, where we will then see strong resistance. There is a confluence of selling points: the previous local top in July 2024, the support area found Dec - Feb 2025, and the weekly MAs turning over.
If we do find resistance in that area, I expect a continuation of the larger trendline break, with the high volume area between 435 - 450 being the most likely support. This would be a 15-20% correction from the top, which is fairly realistic. If we break down even further, then we would have a head & shoulders forming that would mean way more downside.
I will be playing the short side of this set up, since we have broken the trendline support (see my comment for where the trendline begins) and the MAs have now curled down.
If we do find resistance in that area, I expect a continuation of the larger trendline break, with the high volume area between 435 - 450 being the most likely support. This would be a 15-20% correction from the top, which is fairly realistic. If we break down even further, then we would have a head & shoulders forming that would mean way more downside.
I will be playing the short side of this set up, since we have broken the trendline support (see my comment for where the trendline begins) and the MAs have now curled down.
Note
This is the trendline. We have broken below it, if we retrace and break below it again I believe we have confirmation of further downside.
Note
Well, this played out faster than I expected! Let's see if the High Volume Support holds or not. If it breaks, then we have a massive head and shoulders which could take us down much further.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.