Short

Qqq

🤨. Retest and rejected trendline last Wed and Friday As you can see.

Remember Decembers monthly Candle? It sets the stage for a Bearish reversal but price would need to close below 510 for the month of January to confirm it!..

I think it's a very high chance 524 gap close comes.

So much to go over
I'll update more and even entertain upside scenarios 😂

Lots to dive into on this post..

Tomorrow I will cover the Sectors

Note

If you notice with the exception of most chips have been trading sideways for the past 6months; That's because the sector is trading sideways in a channel

Price broke above Bollingerband when it tagged trendline resistance. As I've outlined here with the circles you can see that when price rejects at upper Bbands price will pull back to the 20sma(Green line) minimum . That means should pull back to 252.00 this week which makes them number one on my Short/Weakness list for this week.

The home of and

Everytime price strikes 241 there's a sell off and then this sector makes a lower low

Right now I'm Bearish neutral on XLK.. let me explain
See how price rejects 241? But notice how it covers at 238, that's because 238 was the prior ATH from July 2024.. to show you how strong 238 is just place a horizontal line at 238 and you'll see that every time since July that price cross 238 it needed to gap above it which means there will be lots of selling if price breaks back below 238.

Once price breaks 238 stay short until 234 or 20sma

I think Msft will close gap at 454 minimum
And AAPL to close gap at 216..

and FOMC happens on the same day so if by Thursday price of XLK still can't get over 241 then bulls are in trouble for the long haul!

This sector is such a scam 😂..
Home of

Meta reports this week and it's Advertising sales will move Googl with it .
Price is nowhere near as overbought as it was last july.

Unlike XLK and SMH , XLC is still holding its uptrend from January lows because of Meta strong price action last week.

Early on in the week as long price hold 99.70 I think they will push this higher into 100.84 or .286 fib. A break over 101 will only come with a move higher on Meta after ER

Meta is pushing the upper boundaries of it weekly and daily Bbands and it's at the top of yearly rising wedge.. technically the long here doesn't look good

So for XLC I'm neutral into earnings , if price does move higher it will close gap, then double top.. 88.00 is still my target, the double top is how we get there

Note

Here's daily chart.
Notice it can get over 430

Now here's
Notice it can't get over 232.
Price has been trading inside 228-232..
Could be a flag or a distribution before the drop..

I can't really call it here . I think will retest 230 before it breaks over 235 and I think Tesla will test 399 before it breaks back over 415.. the sector is neutral to me

Note

Upside theory

The focus will be on Powell's speech not the actual decision. Most people feel the Fed will pause this month so If a pause comes that won't be the real move Wed. The real move will come on what Powell hints at for the March decision.. if he's Hawkish then we sell into earnings if he hints at a cut in March then most likely bear season is over and price will push higher. My target for that higher move would be 540 which fits into Qqq usually 4% extension from the 20sma...

Like I said at the start of this thread, bears want a close below 510 for the month. Of January to confirm Decembers Bearish candle .. that 497 gap is still left open 😤...
I'll update on intra day entries later tonight or early tomorrow

Note

In the After market here at 519 Qqq is testing the 20sma

If you look at SMH and XLK you'll see they are both opening up on their 20sma.. Mostly likely there is a bounce here so if you swung short Congrats... If you want to short wait for a break below 518.00 ..
524.50 is now resistance

Note

505 gap today is price stays under 510..

497 gap close coming this week.. Fade the pops..

Note

Upside resistance is 413-414.50
I don't like the dip buy until 505 gap is closed.. then I think we bounce there because of the weekly 20sma. the bounce should be a nice dead cat before 497..
So , the strategy is to fade pops until 505 gap is closed

Note

daily chart
Support loss and losing 200sma too . Chips still selling...

lost wedge support and so has

Note

sector rejected from it's 20sma at 231 ..

.. told you this was such a a scam sector lol.. pumping meta hard

Note

Not giving up 510 today.. will most likely come FOMC or Core PCE.. price can chop between 516-510.. price won't break above 520 either without FOMC so now you chop for 2 days

Note

Smh.. next stop is 230... Below that and we test last August levels... The last 2 yr chip bill run is finished

Note

probably the only tech I like here.. over 435 and I like calls to 441 gap close .

Note

Back inside this channel.. this will be tough resistance at 518-520 (20/50ma)

.. if I'm right from there the next stop will be 490-497 especially if we close Jan below 510.

If we close above 524 then the bear scenario is canceled

Note

Rebound Tuesdays... It's a dead cat and was expected ..

Qqq now is at 521... Expecting a U turn from this area here into FOMC and then we'll see

Note

approaching daily 50sma and 200sma.. doubt they break it with Powell blessing so expect a bounce and a market pullback..
Possible cup and handle on the 1 hour

Note

15min chart. Exact inverse of Vix... Bearish cup and handle

Note

Good morning....

I won't be on till late day, these early moves don't matter much..

ASML beat and has pumped Chip sector to gap resistance around 245
Also 200sma is at 244... I expect chips to pull back from this area and most likely be the weakest today

should finish the move up to 102 gap close either intraday or with meta earnings then I expect a sell there .

Opening up in that 234-236 area lots of price action resistance and 20/50 ema/Sma...

I don't expect price to move much higher and should be weak but not as weak as chips ..

Be back on after Powell speaks

Note

daily..
Smack second resistance here

Best short entry is below 517... With 514 first target and below 514 , 510 comes..
The reason I say below 517 is because the 50sma and 20sma are both at 517.

Long theory lol...
Over 526 take calls for 530..

Note

Straight BS price action.. Contract writers got paid

Note

1hour chart
.. tomorrow will be either 530 gap close or 510

Closing at resistance

Note

Deja vu from yesterday's premarket, only difference is Vix gapping below moving averages.. jobs and GDP in an hour

This 10 yr chart
.. a big move is coming on yields with core PCE tomorrow .. 10yr sitting on 50sma and support .. zoomed out, looks like a H&S inside a major wedge.. zoom in and the right shoulder is forming a falling wedge.. we'll know tomorrow

Note

Sick puppy...
XLC finally closed gap at 102..

Are about to get punished

Note

I guess they want before they stick a fork in it

Hangman yesterday followed by a Bearish engulf probably today

Note

Sector of and Tsla.

Price gapped on TSLA earnings to close gap circled .. most likely TSLA won't go any higher unless XLY clears 236

Note

Good morning...

This premarket price action ehhh.

is close to closing gap at 608
is far from 530

Qqq should back test 524-526 and from there we'll see..

Trump executive orders at 3pm.
Trump meets with NVda CEO today

Note

Observation...
has closed it's deepseek gap

But and haven't.. which means they won't get closed or is headed for 538

Note

What came first ?
The distribution since December or Trump's Tariffs? All you need is a catalyst..

2020 market was overbought
Catalyst - COVID

2022 jan market was overbought
Catalyst - Rate increase..

Chicken or the Egg

Note

Futures showing QQQ may open up at 510 again...

Last week they blamed it on Deepseek, this week tariffs...

Distribution right in front of your eyes disguised with a headline

ContraryTrader

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ContraryTrader

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