Quick summary of little write up below :
1) Probably should not start to get bearish unless bears can get price below November 2024 low , ideally a monthly close below
2) A full cash signal is a close below monthly 21 ema , at that point it's "possibly" a bear market and we should be in cash .
3) After we get get a cash signal , then we need to wait to have a high 2 close to redeploy capital for long risk on stuff ....and should probably long the market right at the following H2 close (when it happens)
4) I practice that myself and it is based on 127 year study of the same occurrences vs monthly.
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Longer version and short ideas I have on my list .
I have been hearing a lot of people are in cash right now and I like to look at the monthly chart , in fact I have tested the down jones back to 1897 on personal studies vs it's monthly and I think its a great way to gauge the market and even take slower less emotional trades .
I have marked up the chart here and shown where we should be in cash for 2022 bear market as an example . I really don't think now is the time to be in cash like many are saying I think that we obviously need to manage risk and listen to market.
BUT, with the exception of the bearish wick from three months ago and the fact that we do have a Low 2 monthly candle which is a weak af sell signal, the bears have not even been able to get us below the nov 2024 lows and that is my line in the sand to begin to potentially take some monthly shorts .... but for now those same shorts are probably longs .
Some key points for me are a close below the monthly 21 ema ( lower one ) its a cash signal .
That's a "monthly close" not the price momentarily going there .
Then once that happens you can just wait for two higher than prior bars closes , which I call high 2's or H2 for short . This is a very simple way to keep you out when getting is not good or switch to shorts and the odd names that are still at highs and ignoring a bear ( hard to do but there's always a few ) .
Ok so finally , should bears start to get price below NOV low here's a list of stuff that might work well . But want to add that right now we should be doing the opposite and focusing on reversal trades and strength .
SHORT IDEA LIST (QQQ must at very least be under nov low to consider acting for me )
PLTR
DUOL
HIMS
APP
NVDA
CYBR
CAVA
SFM
TKO
GOLD/GLD (crowded longs )
RDDT
MSFT
AMZN
PYPL
1) Probably should not start to get bearish unless bears can get price below November 2024 low , ideally a monthly close below
2) A full cash signal is a close below monthly 21 ema , at that point it's "possibly" a bear market and we should be in cash .
3) After we get get a cash signal , then we need to wait to have a high 2 close to redeploy capital for long risk on stuff ....and should probably long the market right at the following H2 close (when it happens)
4) I practice that myself and it is based on 127 year study of the same occurrences vs monthly.
==================================================================================
Longer version and short ideas I have on my list .
I have been hearing a lot of people are in cash right now and I like to look at the monthly chart , in fact I have tested the down jones back to 1897 on personal studies vs it's monthly and I think its a great way to gauge the market and even take slower less emotional trades .
I have marked up the chart here and shown where we should be in cash for 2022 bear market as an example . I really don't think now is the time to be in cash like many are saying I think that we obviously need to manage risk and listen to market.
BUT, with the exception of the bearish wick from three months ago and the fact that we do have a Low 2 monthly candle which is a weak af sell signal, the bears have not even been able to get us below the nov 2024 lows and that is my line in the sand to begin to potentially take some monthly shorts .... but for now those same shorts are probably longs .
Some key points for me are a close below the monthly 21 ema ( lower one ) its a cash signal .
That's a "monthly close" not the price momentarily going there .
Then once that happens you can just wait for two higher than prior bars closes , which I call high 2's or H2 for short . This is a very simple way to keep you out when getting is not good or switch to shorts and the odd names that are still at highs and ignoring a bear ( hard to do but there's always a few ) .
Ok so finally , should bears start to get price below NOV low here's a list of stuff that might work well . But want to add that right now we should be doing the opposite and focusing on reversal trades and strength .
SHORT IDEA LIST (QQQ must at very least be under nov low to consider acting for me )
PLTR
DUOL
HIMS
APP
NVDA
CYBR
CAVA
SFM
TKO
GOLD/GLD (crowded longs )
RDDT
MSFT
AMZN
PYPL
艾力克~
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
艾力克~
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.