So ..
Keep things simple.. Qqq has support at 468-470.. below that support at 450 comes...
Qqq 1st resistance is at 477, over 477 and 483 comes. ..
The technicals say we should bounce up to 483-485 if Jolts come in decent today..
The bad news is Until post Opex we are in a Bearish seasonality..
The structure on one of the biggest sectors XLC (Meta,NFLX) tells me that the selling isn't done and we could see
450 by end of April..
Overall Qqq Top was in like posted back in Dec..
Here's Qqq weekly chart log scale..
Notice it only broke this once in 16yrs and that was because of the stimulus liquidity..
Now zoom in here and notice the 2 red
arrows
the first Arrow was back in July when QQQ tagged that weekly resistance, price corrected but they bought it up for the sake of distribution.. the evidence of that distribution is on your RSI weekly chart. Look at your RSI and notice How it's has diverged as price went higher also notice How NVDA and MSFT pretty much traded sideways since last July. Lastly JPM pretty much said that they liquidated most of their tech longs last summer.
Notice the blue line ? That was our uptrend from 2022 lows, that uptrend combined with the weekly channel has made a rising wedge. We broke that rising wedge last week but I think in April we will rally back up to retest it around 510-515 before a sell in May event that takes us to the bottom of this channel Around 400..
The bigger picture is this, the channel of 16yrs support has never been broken so if you do get that 400 price this summer it will likely be a buying event like what happened at 2022 lows.
I don't think Qqq makes a new high until 400 is tested .
But to focus on today's trade, wait until Jolts numbers are released, if we push over 477 then they will melt this back up to 483.. if we flush then don't short this until you see 467 cause it could be a trap.. below 468 and you short this to 462 then 450.. The WEEKLY 50 SMA is at 485 so it will take CPI to get over that
Had to post this for my friends since X is down 😂 .. I'll update here
Note
Just feels right Qqq 30min chartNote
Not looking good here for bulls... Descending triangle forming inside this bear channel..
Channel resistance is at 473-474 , I don't think we break over it . What I think happens next is this
We break 466 and 450 is incoming .. this scenario doesn't play out only if Qqq can push back over 480
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.