The Market Will Never Be Easy. And Especially Now.
I had some fun with the chart above. It shows the Nasdaq-100 over the last 24 hours. Yesterday it was spiking, today it was dumping.
The amount of money that has exchanged hands in this short trading period is probably hard to comprehend. Hundreds of millions of shares have traded in this short timeframe and even more in total dollar volume. Billions of dollars have traded hands. And that's the point of this post: there is no making sense of a market that is acting the way it currently is.
Well to be fair, there is NEVER a moment where anyone can make sense of the market. There are just times when it's pretty much impossible compared to times when you can actually try to discern even the slightest trend or understanding.
I don't want to sound too pessimistic, because there is some good news in moments like this: there will be opportunity.
All around the market, even crypto included, there are symbols down 50% and more over the last 12 months. Some are down 50% or more in just the last 6 months. When I look at this, I see a lot of potential for a dip that I previously thought I would never get in certain symbols. Before I get to the 5 things I am thinking about, let me first say, there is no rush. Seriously, take your time. Don't just buy to buy or sell to sell. Now more than ever, time is on your side to plan out the perfect trade. Let the billions of dollars exchange hands, let them pay millions in transaction fees, let them wash trade the day away.
So here are 5 things that I am thinking about in this market:
1. There is no rush. No rush whatsover to do anything. Just look at the chart above. Do you want to rush into that? Take your time, set an alert, and wait for that perfect price point.
2. The amount of research that has to go into finding the perfect symbol in this environment is far and above the bull market times. This is where the experts come out to play. When everyone is panicking, worrying, day trading by the minute in the volatility, the pros come of out.
3. Double and triple check everything. Dive deep into earnings reports and company filings. Pay really close attention to the trading volume - how much liquidity is there, how much is noise, how wide is the range of trading prices. All of these things need to be used to step back, and really see environment that you may be trading into.
4. Look at what the founder, managers, and largest holders are doing. Are they themselves buying more? If it's a crypto project, what are the project leaders doing? In times like this you can learn a lot about how well positioned a symbol is based on what the most important people are thinking or doing. Often times, especially in this social media age, they are tweeting or publishing right there! Go check out their thoughts and make sure you are aligned with them.
5. Think about the ultra long-term. Is the symbol you're looking at actually positioned to succeed for 5 or 10 years? Even if you're swing trading, this should be on your mind. This is your margin of safety. If you don't think it can be here in 5 or 10 years, why even risk money on it for 30 minutes? Even 5 minutes? My takeaway here is that when scanning or creating a list of symbols, be sure to do a quality check. Remove the ones you are uncertain of.
Anyways, those are my thoughts and hopefully you enjoyed them.
Good luck out there!
The amount of money that has exchanged hands in this short trading period is probably hard to comprehend. Hundreds of millions of shares have traded in this short timeframe and even more in total dollar volume. Billions of dollars have traded hands. And that's the point of this post: there is no making sense of a market that is acting the way it currently is.
Well to be fair, there is NEVER a moment where anyone can make sense of the market. There are just times when it's pretty much impossible compared to times when you can actually try to discern even the slightest trend or understanding.
I don't want to sound too pessimistic, because there is some good news in moments like this: there will be opportunity.
All around the market, even crypto included, there are symbols down 50% and more over the last 12 months. Some are down 50% or more in just the last 6 months. When I look at this, I see a lot of potential for a dip that I previously thought I would never get in certain symbols. Before I get to the 5 things I am thinking about, let me first say, there is no rush. Seriously, take your time. Don't just buy to buy or sell to sell. Now more than ever, time is on your side to plan out the perfect trade. Let the billions of dollars exchange hands, let them pay millions in transaction fees, let them wash trade the day away.
So here are 5 things that I am thinking about in this market:
1. There is no rush. No rush whatsover to do anything. Just look at the chart above. Do you want to rush into that? Take your time, set an alert, and wait for that perfect price point.
2. The amount of research that has to go into finding the perfect symbol in this environment is far and above the bull market times. This is where the experts come out to play. When everyone is panicking, worrying, day trading by the minute in the volatility, the pros come of out.
3. Double and triple check everything. Dive deep into earnings reports and company filings. Pay really close attention to the trading volume - how much liquidity is there, how much is noise, how wide is the range of trading prices. All of these things need to be used to step back, and really see environment that you may be trading into.
4. Look at what the founder, managers, and largest holders are doing. Are they themselves buying more? If it's a crypto project, what are the project leaders doing? In times like this you can learn a lot about how well positioned a symbol is based on what the most important people are thinking or doing. Often times, especially in this social media age, they are tweeting or publishing right there! Go check out their thoughts and make sure you are aligned with them.
5. Think about the ultra long-term. Is the symbol you're looking at actually positioned to succeed for 5 or 10 years? Even if you're swing trading, this should be on your mind. This is your margin of safety. If you don't think it can be here in 5 or 10 years, why even risk money on it for 30 minutes? Even 5 minutes? My takeaway here is that when scanning or creating a list of symbols, be sure to do a quality check. Remove the ones you are uncertain of.
Anyways, those are my thoughts and hopefully you enjoyed them.
Good luck out there!
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Read my blog here: scheplick.com
Follow me on X here: x.com/scheplick
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