• Almost everything sold off on Friday, I also closed all my positions even though some of them still didn't hit my sell rule (
QBTS, 
LAES, 
AMPX), might regret it later
• Gold, energy and defense stocks are holding up, reflecting the middle east fears
• Weirdly gaming and entertainment stocks like
RBLX, 
SPOT and 
SGHC were holding up strong on Friday, not sure why, but they could be future leaders. War expectations and lockdown so people stay at home gaming and gambling? Who knows
Portfolio Analytics
• 2 big mistakes remaining: missing out trades (I'm getting better) and giving back too much -> this week I focused on the latter
• On average I'm giving back 0.82R per trade, almost 1
• So every trade could almost cover 1 loss
• This means that just by taking profits better I could cover a large portion of my losses, becoming profitable
• Usually my gains peak out at day 4-5 at around 5-7R
• Interesting how Qullamaggie always said to take profits after 3-5 days, which exactly aligns with this
• My median gain is 2R - idea is to sell half at this level
• My 75th percentile is 5R - at this point I should be out of 75% of the position - aligns well with what Stockbee is doing and it makes so much sense
• If I hit a huge R multiple early on (based on 90th percentile), take larger than 50% profits, maybe 80% - average holding days is less than 3 days
• Additions to methodology: paying attention to correlation coefficient to remove myself from index moves by trading low correlation stocks and calculating $ ATR on a portfolio level to put into context my average daily $ moves. Given I'm trading 10x higher ATR stocks than the indexes, even if I'm only 30-40% invested, that's like being fully invested in the indexes. This puts these "large" daily $ swings in my portfolio into context and reduces my likelihood of closing out early because of a down day.
• Next weeks: no setups (maybe gold and energy), not interested in trading in such news driven market, 100% cash
QBTS, LAES, AMPX), might regret it later• Gold, energy and defense stocks are holding up, reflecting the middle east fears
• Weirdly gaming and entertainment stocks like
RBLX, SPOT and SGHC were holding up strong on Friday, not sure why, but they could be future leaders. War expectations and lockdown so people stay at home gaming and gambling? Who knowsPortfolio Analytics
• 2 big mistakes remaining: missing out trades (I'm getting better) and giving back too much -> this week I focused on the latter
• On average I'm giving back 0.82R per trade, almost 1
• So every trade could almost cover 1 loss
• This means that just by taking profits better I could cover a large portion of my losses, becoming profitable
• Usually my gains peak out at day 4-5 at around 5-7R
• Interesting how Qullamaggie always said to take profits after 3-5 days, which exactly aligns with this
• My median gain is 2R - idea is to sell half at this level
• My 75th percentile is 5R - at this point I should be out of 75% of the position - aligns well with what Stockbee is doing and it makes so much sense
• If I hit a huge R multiple early on (based on 90th percentile), take larger than 50% profits, maybe 80% - average holding days is less than 3 days
• Additions to methodology: paying attention to correlation coefficient to remove myself from index moves by trading low correlation stocks and calculating $ ATR on a portfolio level to put into context my average daily $ moves. Given I'm trading 10x higher ATR stocks than the indexes, even if I'm only 30-40% invested, that's like being fully invested in the indexes. This puts these "large" daily $ swings in my portfolio into context and reduces my likelihood of closing out early because of a down day.
• Next weeks: no setups (maybe gold and energy), not interested in trading in such news driven market, 100% cash
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.